1 00:00:01,260 --> 00:00:04,400 Hello, this is Sam Shelton. We're back with Energy 101. 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:08,410 Today, we're going to look at natural gas fuel vehicles. 3 00:00:08,410 --> 00:00:13,722 We've looked at electric vehicles and this is a good example that we can go 4 00:00:13,722 --> 00:00:18,951 through to look at the technology solutions, the deployment of technology 5 00:00:18,951 --> 00:00:26,230 that hopefully can have a major impact on our energy issues. 6 00:00:26,230 --> 00:00:32,880 And as you have seen throughout this course, the primary issues that I see are 7 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:39,460 carbon emissions and oil imports to the US. 8 00:00:39,460 --> 00:00:44,50 And anything that will resolve either one of those is certainly good. 9 00:00:44,50 --> 00:00:48,170 But they need to, we want to look for the ones that have the big impact. 10 00:00:48,170 --> 00:00:52,793 So it can make a significant dent in the amount of oil we import or the amount of 11 00:00:52,793 --> 00:00:58,9 carbon that we, or is reduced. You know, it, a lot of times the research 12 00:00:58,9 --> 00:01:01,613 and development to work on the technology that has a very small impact is about the 13 00:01:01,613 --> 00:01:04,793 same as, doing the research and development on the technology that has a 14 00:01:04,793 --> 00:01:10,796 major impact. So let's look at the impacts which I 15 00:01:10,796 --> 00:01:17,834 think we should all do and decide before we focus on which energy solution we 16 00:01:17,834 --> 00:01:24,18 should go after. We need to look at which one has the 17 00:01:24,18 --> 00:01:27,940 most, the biggest impact. So that's the purpose today. 18 00:01:27,940 --> 00:01:32,264 And see what the barriers might be to natural gas vehicles. 19 00:01:32,264 --> 00:01:39,390 the first, of course we'd look at the oil consumptions by sector. 20 00:01:39,390 --> 00:01:46,940 And we see that oil is used 72% for transportation, 23% for manufacturing. 21 00:01:46,940 --> 00:01:52,190 And then, residential buildings, commercial buildings and, and used to and 22 00:01:52,190 --> 00:01:57,590 less than half percent used to generate or electricity. 23 00:01:57,590 --> 00:02:02,454 So, if we can make a dent in our oil consumption for transportation, then that 24 00:02:02,454 --> 00:02:07,318 would be a major, reduction create a major reduction in the manner what we 25 00:02:07,318 --> 00:02:12,805 needed import. Assuming that we maintain and even 26 00:02:12,805 --> 00:02:16,380 possibly increase the amount of oil that we produce in this country, because right 27 00:02:16,380 --> 00:02:21,20 now, for the near term, looks we're very optimistic about. 28 00:02:21,20 --> 00:02:26,197 So let's look at some numbers. first, do we have enough natural, enough 29 00:02:26,197 --> 00:02:28,889 natural gas. That's the first thing we want to look 30 00:02:28,889 --> 00:02:31,843 at. There's no sense in thinking about this 31 00:02:31,843 --> 00:02:35,930 as a, a solution to our oil imports if we don't have enough natural gas to displace 32 00:02:35,930 --> 00:02:40,382 a significant amount of that transportation oil. 33 00:02:40,382 --> 00:02:46,70 well, from, in the last five year, from 2007 to 2012, due to natural gas fracking 34 00:02:46,70 --> 00:02:53,72 and horizontal welling that we talked about very early in the course. 35 00:02:53,72 --> 00:02:58,930 the production is up about 24%. So that's about 5% a year, that our US 36 00:02:58,930 --> 00:03:05,290 production for natural gas has been up. It was actually a must and, it, it was 37 00:03:05,290 --> 00:03:10,970 depressed back in 2007, 2008 because of the recession, but that's that's a new 38 00:03:10,970 --> 00:03:18,10 answer we won't to need to get into for our purposes today. 39 00:03:18,10 --> 00:03:21,886 So that means that we have had an increase of 14 billion cubic feet per 40 00:03:21,886 --> 00:03:28,510 day, and essentially, all of that has been taken by the electric power plants. 41 00:03:28,510 --> 00:03:32,580 We say where did that gas go, we don't produce it and put it in a storage. 42 00:03:32,580 --> 00:03:36,190 There's a limited amount of gas we can store in underground storage. 43 00:03:36,190 --> 00:03:40,545 But and that's stayed about the same, because we don't have increase storage 44 00:03:40,545 --> 00:03:45,512 product capability. But essentially all of that increase that 45 00:03:45,512 --> 00:03:50,100 we've had in natural gas over the last five years has gone to electric power 46 00:03:50,100 --> 00:03:54,876 plants. And especially displaced or, or a new 47 00:03:54,876 --> 00:04:01,80 power plants been in lieu of coal power, power, coal fuel power plants. 48 00:04:01,80 --> 00:04:06,414 So let's see how much it would take. and here, I want to reference James 49 00:04:06,414 --> 00:04:11,780 Williams WTRG, who is energy economist over in Arkansas. 50 00:04:11,780 --> 00:04:16,525 And there is a website that he, he did a newsletter study that I'm basically 51 00:04:16,525 --> 00:04:21,550 tracking here and getting a lot of information from. 52 00:04:21,550 --> 00:04:25,890 He got the raw data, like I do, from the Energy Information Administration, and I 53 00:04:25,890 --> 00:04:31,753 agree with the data source. so, he, he's got a few more explanatory 54 00:04:31,753 --> 00:04:37,963 notes in, in that newsletter. so how much natural gas would it take to 55 00:04:37,963 --> 00:04:42,196 displace a 100% of gasoline? Now, we don't need to do that, we'll 56 00:04:42,196 --> 00:04:45,706 never do that anyway. But, we look at 100% and then we say, 57 00:04:45,706 --> 00:04:49,865 well, let's see if a major impact would be 25% of that. 58 00:04:49,865 --> 00:04:54,447 So, it's a way to look and see what it would take to have a major impact on 59 00:04:54,447 --> 00:05:00,650 reducing our gasoline and diesel fuel their utilization. 60 00:05:00,650 --> 00:05:05,864 Well, today, gasoline demand is 8.6 million barrels per day, and that's out 61 00:05:05,864 --> 00:05:10,920 of our total oil usage of about 15 million barrels per day gasoline energy 62 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:15,914 content. If we're going to replace gasoline with 63 00:05:15,914 --> 00:05:19,434 natural gas, it just takes the same amount of energy. 64 00:05:19,434 --> 00:05:25,104 so it'll take a BTU of natural gas to drive a car the same distances as a BTU 65 00:05:25,104 --> 00:05:29,510 of gasoline. So that's the basis here. 66 00:05:29,510 --> 00:05:34,892 Gasoline energy content is 5.2 million, million BTUs per barrel, and we use 8.6 67 00:05:34,892 --> 00:05:41,475 million barrels of gasoline per day. Now, the natural gas energy content is 68 00:05:41,475 --> 00:05:47,100 approximately 1000 BTUs per cubic foot, so you run the math on that. 69 00:05:47,100 --> 00:05:52,58 You take 8.6 million times 5.2 million BTUs per day divided by 1024 and you get 70 00:05:52,58 --> 00:05:58,282 billions of cubic feet per day. 43.8 approximate, essentially, 44 billion 71 00:05:58,282 --> 00:06:02,342 cubic feet per day, so that's how many billion cubic feet per day of the 72 00:06:02,342 --> 00:06:09,282 extra-natural gas we will have to produce to displace a 100% of the gasoline. 73 00:06:09,282 --> 00:06:14,520 We wanted to, to replace 10% inevitably of 4.4 billion cubic feet per day. 74 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:19,324 So that's the point of this calculation. Now, let's look at diesel fuel, because 75 00:06:19,324 --> 00:06:23,548 in trans, a lot of that oil is burned as gasoline some of it is burned as diesel 76 00:06:23,548 --> 00:06:27,848 fuel. And so, what's the transportation diesel 77 00:06:27,848 --> 00:06:31,340 fuel demand? Well, it's 2.8 million barrels per day 78 00:06:31,340 --> 00:06:34,790 versus the 8, whatever it was for gasoline. 79 00:06:34,790 --> 00:06:39,549 It's less, but it's significant. the diesel energy fuel energy content is 80 00:06:39,549 --> 00:06:44,246 5.8 million BTUs per barrel. Notice that's a little higher than 81 00:06:44,246 --> 00:06:49,4 gasoline, which is 5.2. That's one of the reasons diesel diesel 82 00:06:49,4 --> 00:06:55,210 engines get higher fuel mileage than our cars, than gasoline cars. 83 00:06:55,210 --> 00:06:59,834 Because, when you buy a gallon of diesel, you get more BTUs, and than if you buy a 84 00:06:59,834 --> 00:07:05,377 gallon of gasoline. again, the natural gas energy content is 85 00:07:05,377 --> 00:07:11,323 1,024 BTU per cubic, cubic foot. Run the math, it's 2.8 times 5.8 divided 86 00:07:11,323 --> 00:07:17,257 by 1,024, and it takes about 16 billion cubic feet per day to displace have, have 87 00:07:17,257 --> 00:07:24,140 enough natural gas to displace all of the diesel fuel. 88 00:07:24,140 --> 00:07:30,175 So, when we sum it up here it takes about 44 gasoline Bcf per day of natural gas to 89 00:07:30,175 --> 00:07:36,590 displace all our gasoline and used in transportation. 90 00:07:36,590 --> 00:07:42,680 16 approximately Bcf per day of diesel, and to replace all the diesel, so it's 91 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:48,509 approximately 60 Bcf per day in natural gas would displace 100% of our gasoline, 92 00:07:48,509 --> 00:07:56,788 and diesel fuel and all the fuel barrel, oil that consumes. 93 00:07:56,788 --> 00:08:02,682 so, how is, how is that compare with our natural gas production today? 94 00:08:02,682 --> 00:08:08,14 Well, as, as I noted earlier, the 2012 nitro gas production during the year 95 00:08:08,14 --> 00:08:13,90 average about 69 billion cubic feed per day. 96 00:08:13,90 --> 00:08:18,127 So, we essentially would have almost double it, well, but let's look in look 97 00:08:18,127 --> 00:08:25,255 in this that's obviously an extreme, but if we want to do 10% or 20% or 25%. 98 00:08:25,255 --> 00:08:30,219 You merely take that percentage of the 60 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas 99 00:08:30,219 --> 00:08:36,776 that would displace all of it. So, that's that's educational. 100 00:08:36,776 --> 00:08:40,136 You know, it's not an impossible thing, particularly since we seem to be 101 00:08:40,136 --> 00:08:45,120 increasing our natural gas production, or we are in the history anyway. 102 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,20 Who knows what's going to happen in the next year or two? 103 00:08:47,20 --> 00:08:53,110 That's another issue I'll mention. but let's just take 25% displacement of 104 00:08:53,110 --> 00:08:59,55 our oil used for transportation. Well, that would require 15 billion cubic 105 00:08:59,55 --> 00:09:03,343 feet per day of natural gas, 1 4th of the 60, and with, we'd have to increase our 106 00:09:03,343 --> 00:09:07,910 total natural gas production from 69 to 83. 107 00:09:07,910 --> 00:09:11,143 And, you know, that's about the same increase we've had over the last five 108 00:09:11,143 --> 00:09:14,266 years. However, we gotta realize we're not, 109 00:09:14,266 --> 00:09:18,554 vehicles are not the only ones that would like to have this natural gas, assuming 110 00:09:18,554 --> 00:09:23,2 we can convert all the vehicles to natural gas. 111 00:09:23,2 --> 00:09:27,188 we have competing usage. Electric power is certainly the biggest 112 00:09:27,188 --> 00:09:30,344 competing usage. They've already used up the, the, the 113 00:09:30,344 --> 00:09:34,240 last incremental 14 billion cubic feet per day. 114 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:38,660 And if we continue to build, new power plants are like natural gas, rather than 115 00:09:38,660 --> 00:09:43,488 coal, which we expect to do, then they're going to continue to increase the amount 116 00:09:43,488 --> 00:09:49,728 of natural gas consumption. So we, we got to realize that we're not 117 00:09:49,728 --> 00:09:54,351 the only shoppers new shoppers are looking for gas for natural for vehicles 118 00:09:54,351 --> 00:09:59,790 that are looking for that to use that extra-natural gas. 119 00:09:59,790 --> 00:10:04,806 The other competing usage is liquefied natural gas exports where they liquefy 120 00:10:04,806 --> 00:10:08,986 it, cool it to minus 265 degrees Fahrenheit, but it on special, LNG 121 00:10:08,986 --> 00:10:15,215 tankers and export it. we can export almost everything that, 122 00:10:15,215 --> 00:10:19,729 that we want to, and people like Shell Oil Company are putting hundreds of 123 00:10:19,729 --> 00:10:24,835 millions of dollars over the next few years of state they were and exporting 124 00:10:24,835 --> 00:10:32,230 building export equipment and facilities to export LNG. 125 00:10:32,230 --> 00:10:35,506 So they're going to be buying extra-natural gas that we produce, 126 00:10:35,506 --> 00:10:39,601 hopefully that we'll produce for that effort to get some profit back on all 127 00:10:39,601 --> 00:10:43,802 that investment. So, there are competing usage is here, 128 00:10:43,802 --> 00:10:47,538 things are never as simple as they first appear, we have to dig down. 129 00:10:47,538 --> 00:10:52,822 but what about prices? Well, natural gas drilling activity has 130 00:10:52,822 --> 00:10:59,437 exactly dropped over the last 6 months or so in particular, and why? 131 00:10:59,437 --> 00:11:05,457 Well, because they, it's not economical like current natural gas prices it, and 132 00:11:05,457 --> 00:11:11,47 the what, what I hear over and over again is it takes about $4 to $4.50 of MBtu gas 133 00:11:11,47 --> 00:11:19,920 prices to support new new drilling and the share of gas. 134 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:23,682 And, of course, it was below that so they, they started pulling out of 135 00:11:23,682 --> 00:11:28,450 drilling new oils. And and just to show you how the prices 136 00:11:28,450 --> 00:11:34,0 changed in march of 2012, we were getting natural gas at the wholesale prices that 137 00:11:34,0 --> 00:11:39,100 are distributed for the gases distributed in Louisiana at the Henry Hub, which is 138 00:11:39,100 --> 00:11:45,759 where it is priced. At $2 in the MBtu used, a year later 139 00:11:45,759 --> 00:11:49,881 we're getting it at $4. So the net price of natural gas is 140 00:11:49,881 --> 00:11:53,830 actually doubled approximately in the last year. 141 00:11:53,830 --> 00:11:57,535 So prices are going up and that's going to take away some of the advantages, the 142 00:11:57,535 --> 00:12:01,183 economical advantages, and savings in fuel in our cars and filling them with 143 00:12:01,183 --> 00:12:07,780 natural gas rather than gasoline. So there are a lot, lot of factors here. 144 00:12:07,780 --> 00:12:13,274 And people expect that price to, say 4, 5, $6 in order to have the increased 145 00:12:13,274 --> 00:12:18,276 drilling activity that we have already and we hope will continue and even 146 00:12:18,276 --> 00:12:23,850 increase. So a lot of things have to come to play 147 00:12:23,850 --> 00:12:30,140 here and we're in a free market capital enterprise, capital economy here. 148 00:12:30,140 --> 00:12:34,42 And if people aren't making money at it we're not going to get it. 149 00:12:34,42 --> 00:12:39,79 what about the other, the other part of this natural gas vehicle equation and 150 00:12:39,79 --> 00:12:44,122 that's the fueling stations? we got, if you got the cars that run on 151 00:12:44,122 --> 00:12:49,192 natural gas and you got the supply, what, where you going to get the fuel? 152 00:12:49,192 --> 00:12:53,26 you don't pull up to your friendly corner filling station and refuel your car with 153 00:12:53,26 --> 00:12:57,298 natural gas. there are currently about a thousand US 154 00:12:57,298 --> 00:13:01,934 refueling stations in the US and I believe there are somewhere around 300 155 00:13:01,934 --> 00:13:07,720 thousand to half a million gasoline stations in the US. 156 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:11,992 that's coming off the top of my head so don't, don't quote me on that. 157 00:13:11,992 --> 00:13:17,824 but anyway, about half of them, 500 of those are private fleet owned operators, 158 00:13:17,824 --> 00:13:23,800 like the buses, and a lot of bus systems use natural gas. 159 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,790 I live in Atlanta, on Peachtree Street. Buses run up and down Peachtree Street. 160 00:13:27,790 --> 00:13:31,723 Every bus that runs up and down Peachtree Street in Atlanta is fueled by natural 161 00:13:31,723 --> 00:13:37,310 gas, has fueled for many years. And they go back, of course, every night 162 00:13:37,310 --> 00:13:43,470 to the us, to their lot and they have a large natural gas refueling station they 163 00:13:43,470 --> 00:13:50,273 refuel all the buses. so and, that, that's a private refueling 164 00:13:50,273 --> 00:13:55,91 station, about 500 of the national natural gas refueling stations are open 165 00:13:55,91 --> 00:14:00,12 to the public. so, the other issue is vehicle 166 00:14:00,12 --> 00:14:02,940 conversions. How do you get people to buy vehicles 167 00:14:02,940 --> 00:14:06,970 that are converted to run on natural gas, or do a conversion of the vehicle they 168 00:14:06,970 --> 00:14:10,750 have? Well, it's an economic issue. 169 00:14:10,750 --> 00:14:15,300 Here's some numbers that are recently been put out by the Department of Energy 170 00:14:15,300 --> 00:14:19,850 in a request for a proposal, a funding opportunity that they want, they're 171 00:14:19,850 --> 00:14:24,540 asking for proposals on how to reduce the cost of converting vehicles to fuel run 172 00:14:24,540 --> 00:14:31,34 on natural gas. And here is their estimated current cost. 173 00:14:31,34 --> 00:14:35,258 If, if you're going to get the masses to, and that's what you're interested in 174 00:14:35,258 --> 00:14:38,954 here, is have a major impact on oil consumption to drive natural gas 175 00:14:38,954 --> 00:14:43,396 vehicles. the one way, the great way to do it is 176 00:14:43,396 --> 00:14:48,383 just refuel at home in your garage. And, that would require, that, right now, 177 00:14:48,383 --> 00:14:53,492 that requires about a $4000 investment. Your storage tanks on your vehicle are 178 00:14:53,492 --> 00:14:57,360 about $3,500. They're high pressure 4, 5,000 pounds per 179 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:02,816 square inch pressure vessels. And the balance of system calls to put it 180 00:15:02,816 --> 00:15:06,903 all into the valves, and the fittings, and the controls, and everything is that, 181 00:15:06,903 --> 00:15:12,710 is about $3,500, and the installation to put it all in is about 1,500. 182 00:15:12,710 --> 00:15:17,65 So you're looking at about $12,500 for a person to convert his car to natural gas, 183 00:15:17,65 --> 00:15:21,290 put a refueling station in his garage, which by the way, gives him the cheapest 184 00:15:21,290 --> 00:15:25,450 natural gas, because he can buy it at the same rates that he buys the for his home 185 00:15:25,450 --> 00:15:30,790 for heating. And, whereas, if you go to a public 186 00:15:30,790 --> 00:15:33,490 refueling station, they're going to want to charge you more for the natural 187 00:15:33,490 --> 00:15:37,849 gas than you can buy it for at your home. Because, they gotta compress it, and they 188 00:15:37,849 --> 00:15:41,950 gotta have a refueling station, and they have to make a profit on that. 189 00:15:41,950 --> 00:15:45,910 So, this is the way you get the cheapest natural gas is have your own station, and 190 00:15:45,910 --> 00:15:50,864 that may or may not be worthwhile. But, for you to rely on public fueling 191 00:15:50,864 --> 00:15:54,764 stations, we gotta have a major expansion of the number of refueling stations 192 00:15:54,764 --> 00:15:58,551 available. The target, what they're asking for, 193 00:15:58,551 --> 00:16:02,516 proposals that would reduce these costs that you see on the right-hand column 194 00:16:02,516 --> 00:16:07,103 here down through the total package will be $4,000. 195 00:16:07,103 --> 00:16:10,699 In part, remember, remember, we're talking about trying to get these 196 00:16:10,699 --> 00:16:14,830 converted cars and natural gas cars out to the masses? 197 00:16:14,830 --> 00:16:20,86 And, they're you, if you're auto geek, you can do it a lot cheaper and a lot 198 00:16:20,86 --> 00:16:26,485 varied, a lot of variations there. We're talking about some mass, the masses 199 00:16:26,485 --> 00:16:30,385 that don't know a lot about the car technologies, and who just want a nice 200 00:16:30,385 --> 00:16:34,870 package, and is warranted, and just like with they bought a conventional gasoline 201 00:16:34,870 --> 00:16:39,605 new car. and they don't want to pay a lot more 202 00:16:39,605 --> 00:16:43,875 money you, you find out for 3 or 5 year payback, because their fuel is going to 203 00:16:43,875 --> 00:16:47,716 be less. But that's some of the economics that 204 00:16:47,716 --> 00:16:50,370 we'll have to deal with. So what's the summary here? 205 00:16:50,370 --> 00:16:55,326 Well, for major impacts, a 25% reduction in the amount of oil demand for 206 00:16:55,326 --> 00:17:01,900 transportation, we need about a 25% increase in gas production. 207 00:17:01,900 --> 00:17:02,144 And the decrease, we need to decrease vehicle conversion cost to make 208 00:17:02,144 --> 00:17:02,410 compressed natural gas vehicles appeal to the masses. 209 00:17:02,410 --> 00:17:09,602 Questions that come are, that come up are, can we increase natural gas 210 00:17:09,602 --> 00:17:21,330 production and will it be available for compressed natural gas transportation? 211 00:17:21,330 --> 00:17:24,807 What's the time schedule for getting the reduced compressed natural gas 212 00:17:24,807 --> 00:17:29,960 conversion, converted vehicles down, and the technology developed and deployed? 213 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:35,170 And what about refueling stations? So, there, lots of questions about 214 00:17:35,170 --> 00:17:43,492 implementing this one possibility, that, for reducing our oil consumption. 215 00:17:43,492 --> 00:17:47,250 And by the way, this is not something new. 216 00:17:47,250 --> 00:17:51,723 One of the first things I did when I came to Georgia Tech as a faculty member in 217 00:17:51,723 --> 00:17:56,409 the 1970s was I was, I was faculty adviser on, in Georgia Tech entry into a 218 00:17:56,409 --> 00:18:01,379 cleaner car race where students developed a clean air cars, they, they, that was 219 00:18:01,379 --> 00:18:05,497 controversial at that point in time and drove them from MIT in Boston, 220 00:18:05,497 --> 00:18:13,570 Massachusetts to Pasadena, California in CalTech. 221 00:18:13,570 --> 00:18:17,470 And we're, our entry was a compressed natural gas vehicles, and we drove it the 222 00:18:17,470 --> 00:18:22,486 entire distance all the way from Boston to Pasadena on natural gas. 223 00:18:22,486 --> 00:18:25,931 It's probably still the only vehicle that's been driven all the way across the 224 00:18:25,931 --> 00:18:31,55 country on nothing but natural gas. We had a, had a truck that went with us 225 00:18:31,55 --> 00:18:36,155 brought by the Atlanta Gas Light Company, and they refueled every night at a local 226 00:18:36,155 --> 00:18:41,364 natural gas company. And, we would stop every hundred miles or 227 00:18:41,364 --> 00:18:46,380 so and refuel from the truck. So it, it's not, not new technology. 228 00:18:46,380 --> 00:18:49,500 We've known it could be done for many, many, many years. 229 00:18:49,500 --> 00:18:54,170 And it's a matter of just how do we move it forward into mass adoption. 230 00:18:54,170 --> 00:18:58,262 And that's the way it is, most of these solutions to our major issues for 231 00:18:58,262 --> 00:19:03,630 reducing our oil consumption and decreasing our carbon emissions. 232 00:19:03,630 --> 00:19:09,426 On carbon emissions by the way, natural gas vehicles will reduce carbon emissions 233 00:19:09,426 --> 00:19:14,802 about 15% compared to gasoline and about 25% for diesels, because it got more 234 00:19:14,802 --> 00:19:22,444 hydrogen per carbon atom. So it will cost 15 to 25% reduction in 235 00:19:22,444 --> 00:19:29,890 carbon dioxide emission comparing to gasoline and diesel fuels vehicles. 236 00:19:29,890 --> 00:19:33,610 So that's a little bit of winner there in moving in the right direction. 237 00:19:33,610 --> 00:19:37,563 So up, think this is a good example of the depth that we need to look at all 238 00:19:37,563 --> 00:19:41,863 these alternatives that people bring up to me. 239 00:19:41,863 --> 00:19:45,950 About, well, we can just do, do xyz and it's got, doing xyz involves a lot of 240 00:19:45,950 --> 00:19:50,122 things and they have some real show-stoppers. 241 00:19:50,122 --> 00:19:53,726 but we now, under, have the data and know where to get the data in order to run all 242 00:19:53,726 --> 00:19:58,68 these calculations. So, hopefully, you'll be able to look at 243 00:19:58,68 --> 00:20:02,330 these possibilities a little more in depth yourself. 244 00:20:02,330 --> 00:20:03,743 Thank you.