1 00:00:05,885 --> 00:00:07,116 Hello Mr. Dean. 2 00:00:07,116 --> 00:00:09,967 >> Hello. >> Welcome, thank you for joining me 3 00:00:09,967 --> 00:00:13,100 today for our office hours. >> My pleasure. 4 00:00:13,100 --> 00:00:16,740 >> We have a ton of pressing questions from your students. 5 00:00:16,740 --> 00:00:20,622 And I am going to pose these at you. Hopefully you can give me some answers. 6 00:00:20,622 --> 00:00:23,001 >> Let's, let's hope. It will be really embarrassing if I 7 00:00:23,001 --> 00:00:26,250 can't. >> [LAUGH] Yeah it would, It would. 8 00:00:26,250 --> 00:00:29,707 I'll try to stump you[LAUGH] . First, for the question that's been on 9 00:00:29,707 --> 00:00:33,262 everyone's minds, what is your favorite kind of pie? 10 00:00:33,262 --> 00:00:40,520 >> Favorite kind of pie, so I would have to say 3.1436. 11 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:44,210 How does that work? I forget the sequence but, Pi as being an 12 00:00:44,210 --> 00:00:48,480 irrational number has been a favorite of mine. 13 00:00:48,480 --> 00:00:54,730 Actually predictably rational is the, Pi, Pi which I particular like. 14 00:00:54,730 --> 00:00:58,500 I don't think anybody understood that particular aspect but as an irrational 15 00:00:58,500 --> 00:01:01,698 number I like that. Now in terms of real pies. 16 00:01:01,698 --> 00:01:06,770 I would have to say. I'm, I'm embarrassed to say, but I 17 00:01:06,770 --> 00:01:11,130 probably like the most standard pie of them all, which is apple pie. 18 00:01:11,130 --> 00:01:16,803 I know it's plain, it's the typical answer but, maybe there's a reason for 19 00:01:16,803 --> 00:01:20,116 that. >> I also enjoy apple pie. 20 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:25,840 Alright, so, on a more serious note, there's been a little bit of confusion on 21 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:29,900 your use of rationality and irrationality. 22 00:01:29,900 --> 00:01:33,776 And would you like to explain for the students what you mean by that? 23 00:01:33,776 --> 00:01:36,844 >> Yep, so, so there's lots of ways to think about rational and irrational 24 00:01:36,844 --> 00:01:40,172 behavior and one way is to think about people who are crazy versus normal, and 25 00:01:40,172 --> 00:01:45,596 that's not what I mean. And I think about two ways of thinking 26 00:01:45,596 --> 00:01:49,621 about rationality. The first one is about the economic 27 00:01:49,621 --> 00:01:53,550 definition of rationality. An economic definition of rationality is 28 00:01:53,550 --> 00:01:57,470 that people have complete and transitive preferences that we know all preferences 29 00:01:57,470 --> 00:02:01,110 in some sorted order, what we like more or less, and we don't have a violation of 30 00:02:01,110 --> 00:02:06,020 transitivity. If we like a more than b, and b more than 31 00:02:06,020 --> 00:02:11,115 c, we don't like c more than a. And this is the, the version of 32 00:02:11,115 --> 00:02:16,079 rationality in economic thinking right, we can compute, we can think in advance, 33 00:02:16,079 --> 00:02:22,388 all of those things. And I care first about that definition. 34 00:02:22,388 --> 00:02:24,412 Why? Because economics is not just a 35 00:02:24,412 --> 00:02:27,688 descriptive study of what's going on in the world, it's also a prescriptive 36 00:02:27,688 --> 00:02:30,520 study. It's also a study that tell people in 37 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:35,220 policy and government, the individuals how people should live their lives. 38 00:02:35,220 --> 00:02:38,134 And if the assumption, the basic assumption of rationality are violating 39 00:02:38,134 --> 00:02:41,471 economics, it means we should think very differently about the recommendation, the 40 00:02:41,471 --> 00:02:46,018 recommendations of economics. So, if economics tell us how we should do 41 00:02:46,018 --> 00:02:50,020 taxes and healthcare and education and so on, but it's based on assumption that are 42 00:02:50,020 --> 00:02:55,940 not correct, maybe we should rethink before we take on these recommendations. 43 00:02:55,940 --> 00:02:59,280 That's the first definition. What economics believe. 44 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:03,438 The second version of it which I actually care more about is the version in which 45 00:03:03,438 --> 00:03:07,976 we ourselves don't understand what drives our behavior. 46 00:03:07,976 --> 00:03:12,220 So think about a case in which economics is wrong about. 47 00:03:12,220 --> 00:03:15,098 But you as an individual understood perfectly well. 48 00:03:15,098 --> 00:03:19,110 Well, maybe you don't care what economic theory has to do, because you understand 49 00:03:19,110 --> 00:03:23,089 it perfectly well. for example generosity, in standard 50 00:03:23,089 --> 00:03:26,924 economic theory people should not be altruistic towards other people, but we 51 00:03:26,924 --> 00:03:30,995 all understand that people sometime are altruistic and helpful to each other even 52 00:03:30,995 --> 00:03:37,310 there are no incentives. This is a case economics gets it wrong. 53 00:03:37,310 --> 00:03:41,026 Do I care about those cases? Not so much because people understand 54 00:03:41,026 --> 00:03:44,070 that we're altruistic in nature to allow us degree. 55 00:03:44,070 --> 00:03:47,542 The second version I care about is when we don't understand what drives our 56 00:03:47,542 --> 00:03:50,949 behavior. So for example, if you think that you're 57 00:03:50,949 --> 00:03:54,855 driven by some parts of reason but in fact you're driven by emotion, you're 58 00:03:54,855 --> 00:03:58,383 going to be not prepared well for situation would confront you with 59 00:03:58,383 --> 00:04:04,150 different decisions and therefore you might be trapped. 60 00:04:04,150 --> 00:04:07,920 If you don't understand that you have too much trust in people and people might 61 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:13,260 abuse your trust. That opens the door for misbehavior. 62 00:04:13,260 --> 00:04:16,623 If you don't understand conflicts of interest, and how it could change 63 00:04:16,623 --> 00:04:21,854 people's behavior, again it can trap us. So this second version is a version which 64 00:04:21,854 --> 00:04:26,276 I care about, which is that if people, if we all don't understand what's drive our 65 00:04:26,276 --> 00:04:30,750 behaviors, we're likely to make a mistake. 66 00:04:30,750 --> 00:04:34,314 And as somebody who cares about fixing things, I care about this definition to a 67 00:04:34,314 --> 00:04:38,948 very large degree. >> Wonderful, thank you. 68 00:04:38,948 --> 00:04:42,336 >> By the way, thanks for the compliment. You, you know the, you remember the 69 00:04:42,336 --> 00:04:45,328 research on, compliments that when you give people compliments they like you 70 00:04:45,328 --> 00:04:49,700 more and think highly of you, even if they know the compliments are insincere? 71 00:04:49,700 --> 00:04:54,625 >> That's very of nice of you. [LAUGH] 72 00:04:54,625 --> 00:04:59,045 >> So are there cases where you would want to be irrational or is rational this 73 00:04:59,045 --> 00:05:04,748 thing we should all strive for, we want to be rational human beings? 74 00:05:04,748 --> 00:05:07,760 >> So, so think about these two definitions. 75 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:11,469 These two ways of being rational. I think that the case in which we don't 76 00:05:11,469 --> 00:05:16,340 understand what drives our behavior, that's not something I want to have. 77 00:05:16,340 --> 00:05:19,859 I can't see a reason for doing it. But the case in which we have 78 00:05:19,859 --> 00:05:23,270 irrationalities that I actually think are good. 79 00:05:23,270 --> 00:05:27,866 That absolutely the case. falling in love, being emotional, caring 80 00:05:27,866 --> 00:05:34,760 about our kids, caring about the things that we create to a large degree. 81 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,571 And of course, being altruistic. The fact that we're capable of being 82 00:05:38,571 --> 00:05:42,400 wonderful to each other. Contributing to the social good and 83 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:46,272 actually enjoying from that back. All that is not part of the standard 84 00:05:46,272 --> 00:05:49,322 economic theory. It's not that the economic theory cannot 85 00:05:49,322 --> 00:05:52,998 be modified to take this into account. But these are beautiful things about 86 00:05:52,998 --> 00:05:55,940 human nature. I don't necessarily want to fix them. 87 00:05:55,940 --> 00:05:58,120 Now there are some things I would like to fix. 88 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,370 Like, we have tremendous capacity for love, we also have tremendous capacity 89 00:06:01,370 --> 00:06:04,103 for hate. It will be nice to get rid of some of it, 90 00:06:04,103 --> 00:06:07,430 but not the other. But in total, I think the fact that we 91 00:06:07,430 --> 00:06:11,206 are creatures that have this empathic ability to think about other people in 92 00:06:11,206 --> 00:06:14,982 our society, and so on, is definitely something I would like not just to keep, 93 00:06:14,982 --> 00:06:20,841 but maybe even, nourish. >> Alright. 94 00:06:20,841 --> 00:06:25,197 how do you think that doing research on irrationality has effected your own 95 00:06:25,197 --> 00:06:29,998 thinking and decision making. >> So, so first of all I think that, 96 00:06:29,998 --> 00:06:34,030 the wonderful thing about social science is that I now walk around the world 97 00:06:34,030 --> 00:06:39,035 thinking about experiments. And, If you think about it you know, we 98 00:06:39,035 --> 00:06:42,268 use to think that the big mysteries in life are things that have to with the 99 00:06:42,268 --> 00:06:47,188 stars or maybe molecular biology. And I think that now we're realizing how 100 00:06:47,188 --> 00:06:51,930 bigger the mysteries in our everyday life and how big of a mystery is our brain. 101 00:06:51,930 --> 00:06:55,178 So for me the fun thing about being a social scientist is I can go to have 102 00:06:55,178 --> 00:07:00,391 lunch somewhere and I look at the price list and I think about experiments. 103 00:07:00,391 --> 00:07:01,953 I think about what other people are eating. 104 00:07:01,953 --> 00:07:06,945 I look about what somebody's eating hot stuff and it's kind of an interesting 105 00:07:06,945 --> 00:07:10,624 question. Just before I came here somebody was 106 00:07:10,624 --> 00:07:13,707 listening to some sad music. What? 107 00:07:13,707 --> 00:07:15,839 Why? Why do people listen to sad music? 108 00:07:15,839 --> 00:07:17,934 It's kind of an interesting thing. Do you want to be sad? 109 00:07:17,934 --> 00:07:20,750 Under what condition? So. 110 00:07:20,750 --> 00:07:24,368 The first thing I really like about it is that everything is a question, there's a 111 00:07:24,368 --> 00:07:27,392 lot we don't know, and you can just wonder around the world from this 112 00:07:27,392 --> 00:07:31,554 perspective, and it's a, it's a nice aspect. 113 00:07:31,554 --> 00:07:36,880 Now, you can also ask whether it has benefits. 114 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,490 And I think you can think about the few things. 115 00:07:39,490 --> 00:07:43,280 First of all, when I make decisions in a mindless way. 116 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,290 Just making decisions of course, I make the same mistakes as everybody else. 117 00:07:47,290 --> 00:07:52,372 I think when I slow down and think about it I can sometimes recognize what are the 118 00:07:52,372 --> 00:07:57,020 extra forces that could shape my decision. 119 00:07:57,020 --> 00:08:01,490 What is the influence by the sales person, by the weather. 120 00:08:01,490 --> 00:08:04,740 By what other people are doing, what is this website exactly trying to get me to 121 00:08:04,740 --> 00:08:07,559 do? And under those conditions, if I slow 122 00:08:07,559 --> 00:08:10,460 down I think I can make a better decision. 123 00:08:10,460 --> 00:08:15,196 And finally, I think I understand or appreciate to a higher degree the role of 124 00:08:15,196 --> 00:08:19,090 habit. You know, and you can ask yourself. 125 00:08:19,090 --> 00:08:22,080 If you have to make a decision every time what are the chances you'll make a good 126 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:24,860 decision? Not so high. 127 00:08:24,860 --> 00:08:29,036 What if you get into a good habit? I think good habits actually have a way 128 00:08:29,036 --> 00:08:32,690 to stay with us for a long time, take away our need to make a decision and 129 00:08:32,690 --> 00:08:37,500 instead have a policy that is a good policy for us. 130 00:08:37,500 --> 00:08:41,532 So I think between all of those, I make some better decision, not all the time, 131 00:08:41,532 --> 00:08:46,753 not always but at least some. >> Alright, So if you notice someone 132 00:08:46,753 --> 00:08:52,100 who is behaving irrationally, should you point it out to them? 133 00:08:52,100 --> 00:08:54,932 Should you try and help them correct their behavior, and is there a more 134 00:08:54,932 --> 00:08:58,082 tactful way to do this, that doesn't offend them? 135 00:08:58,082 --> 00:09:01,562 >> So, first of all, if there are member of your family, your significant 136 00:09:01,562 --> 00:09:06,548 other, your mother and so on, never try[LAUGH] I don't recommend it. 137 00:09:06,548 --> 00:09:10,666 you know that, they say that when doctors go to medical school, the read about a 138 00:09:10,666 --> 00:09:14,604 disease and they immediately think they have it. 139 00:09:14,604 --> 00:09:15,523 >> Yeah. [LAUGH]. 140 00:09:15,523 --> 00:09:18,559 >> And I think the same thing happens to people who, study decision making, you 141 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:22,910 look at the decision you understand the mistake you see how it happens to you. 142 00:09:22,910 --> 00:09:25,640 Which is very good. But then you see how other people are 143 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,970 irrational. And sometimes I think, we can see 144 00:09:27,970 --> 00:09:33,160 rationality more clearly on other people. But trying to correct people is something 145 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:38,274 that needs to be done with tact. I, I'll tell you, if I think about how I 146 00:09:38,274 --> 00:09:43,172 try to do it, both in classes and in, in writing, I usually try to give people 147 00:09:43,172 --> 00:09:49,401 examples of other people. I think that coming to somebody and say, 148 00:09:49,401 --> 00:09:54,840 look at this, you just made a mistake, is a, a confrontational offensive part. 149 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,155 But I think that if you came to somebody and say, hey there is this study, here is 150 00:09:58,155 --> 00:10:01,764 what people do. There's a chance that this person might 151 00:10:01,764 --> 00:10:05,471 recognize it on themself and might take the, the action. 152 00:10:05,471 --> 00:10:08,951 Now I think it's true that if you confronted somebody more directly they 153 00:10:08,951 --> 00:10:12,790 would say it but I also think it could be offensive. 154 00:10:12,790 --> 00:10:16,510 So I prefer to say here is what happens in general to other people and let the 155 00:10:16,510 --> 00:10:20,470 person draw the final conclusion for themselves. 156 00:10:20,470 --> 00:10:23,806 Hoping they would do it. Maybe if they don't you can push them a 157 00:10:23,806 --> 00:10:27,558 little further and say by the way, other people might think that you're behaving 158 00:10:27,558 --> 00:10:31,558 like this as well, not me. Other people. 159 00:10:31,558 --> 00:10:35,066 >> Okay. So quite a few people have been have 160 00:10:35,066 --> 00:10:40,959 concerned about the moral implications of, studying this but also intervening in 161 00:10:40,959 --> 00:10:47,606 people's behavior. >> So, yeah, is it ethical to try and, 162 00:10:47,606 --> 00:10:52,860 manipulate other people's decisions? >> Yeah. 163 00:10:52,860 --> 00:10:55,120 So this is a very deep, this is a very deep problem. 164 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,230 This is the problem of paternalism. So. 165 00:10:57,230 --> 00:11:01,622 Imagine that I taught you ten tricks of how to influence people's behaviors. 166 00:11:01,622 --> 00:11:07,170 And now the question is to what degree should you or shouldn't you do that. 167 00:11:07,170 --> 00:11:10,299 there's a couple of answers for that. First of all we need to recognize that 168 00:11:10,299 --> 00:11:14,430 the world is setting up some things to be easier than others. 169 00:11:14,430 --> 00:11:19,120 And if you think about something like, in New York City there's a debate recently 170 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:23,600 about whether Mayor Bloomberg should prohbit large portions of soft drinks 171 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:29,234 with lots of sugar or he should not. And people say well that's an 172 00:11:29,234 --> 00:11:32,922 intervention in people's lives. So first of all we need to recognize that 173 00:11:32,922 --> 00:11:36,162 the world is in a particular state in which you could get a 64 ounce drink, 174 00:11:36,162 --> 00:11:41,200 which is, you know, basically what a whole family should consume. 175 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,662 But you could get one of those if you go to some, some places. 176 00:11:44,662 --> 00:11:47,890 And, and the world is presenting us with these options. 177 00:11:47,890 --> 00:11:52,180 And the world has kind of come up to say that this is okay and this is fine. 178 00:11:52,180 --> 00:11:54,090 And the question is, should we, should we fight that? 179 00:11:54,090 --> 00:11:58,314 And so, so I think we need to recognize that we, sometimes we just need to make a 180 00:11:58,314 --> 00:12:02,444 decision. And we could make a decision to allow it 181 00:12:02,444 --> 00:12:05,564 or not allow it and none of those decisions is inherently more moral than 182 00:12:05,564 --> 00:12:08,892 the other, just are two very different decisions, but one of them is enjoying 183 00:12:08,892 --> 00:12:13,498 the status quo. One of them is enjoying the current state 184 00:12:13,498 --> 00:12:16,529 of affairs right now. It could have, we could have imagined 185 00:12:16,529 --> 00:12:21,566 that it was the other status quo. The, the thing about influencing people, 186 00:12:21,566 --> 00:12:27,586 is that I don't think we would ever have, a fully satisfying philosophical standing 187 00:12:27,586 --> 00:12:32,171 on that. And, I think that in general, human 188 00:12:32,171 --> 00:12:36,770 freedom, human decision making, letting people make the right choices for 189 00:12:36,770 --> 00:12:42,350 themselves, is a good value to have and to hold. 190 00:12:42,350 --> 00:12:45,278 At the same time, I also think that there are many cases in which people are 191 00:12:45,278 --> 00:12:48,730 incapable of making the right decisions for themselves. 192 00:12:48,730 --> 00:12:52,298 You can think about kids, of course. You can think about adults in tough 193 00:12:52,298 --> 00:12:54,945 situations. You can think about people who make 194 00:12:54,945 --> 00:12:57,960 decisions with very little information compared to companies that have a lot of 195 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:02,302 information about it. You can think about situation which the 196 00:13:02,302 --> 00:13:06,890 company or the supermarket can pump the smell of fresh baked goods into the 197 00:13:06,890 --> 00:13:15,050 supermarket leaving you helpless in the light of your, you know, evoking, hunger. 198 00:13:15,050 --> 00:13:19,082 So when you think about all of those I think we have these two things running at 199 00:13:19,082 --> 00:13:23,139 the same time. We have a desire to let people choose for 200 00:13:23,139 --> 00:13:27,297 themselves and we have the recognition that people are unlikely in all cases to 201 00:13:27,297 --> 00:13:31,329 make the right decisions, and I don't think we'll ever find something that is 202 00:13:31,329 --> 00:13:36,320 black and white. If we should always let people do what 203 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:40,210 they want or always prevent people from doing, doing what they want. 204 00:13:40,210 --> 00:13:43,190 I think it's always going to be a struggle. 205 00:13:43,190 --> 00:13:47,202 Now, the thing with that struggle is that sometimes we see the negative 206 00:13:47,202 --> 00:13:53,050 consequences of bad behavior. Think about something like driving. 207 00:13:53,050 --> 00:13:56,390 When people drive and they make mistakes we see the mistakes. 208 00:13:56,390 --> 00:13:58,880 We see people dying. We see people killing each other. 209 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:03,430 It's unavoidable not to recognize that people make mistakes while driving. 210 00:14:03,430 --> 00:14:07,249 When people drink too much soft drinks or eat too many donuts or basically become 211 00:14:07,249 --> 00:14:10,669 obese, it's not one big decision that is killing them, it's a lot of small 212 00:14:10,669 --> 00:14:16,240 decisions that is contributing to that. And in those cases, we don't see it as 213 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,606 much, it's not as saliant, and because of that, I think we're not as likely to act 214 00:14:19,606 --> 00:14:23,852 on it. So, anyway I guess giving a long complex 215 00:14:23,852 --> 00:14:29,950 answer is a good way to say, this is a complex philosophical problem. 216 00:14:29,950 --> 00:14:32,570 I don't ever think we'll have the right solution. 217 00:14:32,570 --> 00:14:35,180 I think we need to do, be empirical about this. 218 00:14:35,180 --> 00:14:38,590 We need to take each domain and say how much do we value human freedom in this 219 00:14:38,590 --> 00:14:42,700 domain. How much trouble can people put themself 220 00:14:42,700 --> 00:14:47,740 into if we gave them freedom to make whatever decision they make and how do we 221 00:14:47,740 --> 00:14:53,300 weigh those things? And because of that I'm very happy to 222 00:14:53,300 --> 00:14:57,823 regulate things like caloric consumption and healthcare. 223 00:14:57,823 --> 00:15:02,303 I'm happy to regulate things like long-term financial savings, I'm happy to 224 00:15:02,303 --> 00:15:07,413 regulate driving, I'm happy to regulate gun control, there's lots of things I'm 225 00:15:07,413 --> 00:15:13,478 happy to regulate. There's some things I'm less less happy 226 00:15:13,478 --> 00:15:18,314 to regulate and I should also say the more I study irrationality, the more I 227 00:15:18,314 --> 00:15:23,708 believe in regulation. And it's not because it makes me believe 228 00:15:23,708 --> 00:15:27,516 more that the government is composed of smart intelligent wonderful people, but 229 00:15:27,516 --> 00:15:30,764 it makes me realize how little, how helpless we are to making the right 230 00:15:30,764 --> 00:15:37,028 decisions ourselves. >> So what wouldn't you regulate? 231 00:15:37,028 --> 00:15:39,264 >> What wouldn't I regulate? Sense of humor. 232 00:15:39,264 --> 00:15:41,759 [LAUGH] So, no. So, so, so the kind, the kind of things 233 00:15:41,759 --> 00:15:44,959 that I think I, I would be more hesitant to regulate are things like exercise, 234 00:15:44,959 --> 00:15:49,754 right? So there's, there's lots of things with 235 00:15:49,754 --> 00:15:56,377 healthcare and intake and so on. I think exercise is something I would 236 00:15:56,377 --> 00:16:01,201 not, it's part of healthcare, habitual regular intake of caloric consumption not 237 00:16:01,201 --> 00:16:07,077 sure I am happy to regulate that. I am not sure I would regulate, actually 238 00:16:07,077 --> 00:16:10,834 I am sure I would not regulate family structure. 239 00:16:10,834 --> 00:16:15,190 And I would not regulate education for example, at this point, in the sense that 240 00:16:15,190 --> 00:16:20,044 I don't think we understand, what creates good education. 241 00:16:20,044 --> 00:16:23,882 So, to regulate something. Let's say we want to regulate elementary 242 00:16:23,882 --> 00:16:26,910 schools. Before I'm read to regulate something, I 243 00:16:26,910 --> 00:16:30,020 want to know that I have a good answer for that. 244 00:16:30,020 --> 00:16:32,870 And I think with what education is concerned, right now, we don't yet 245 00:16:32,870 --> 00:16:36,736 understand what gets schools to be good and schools to be bad. 246 00:16:36,736 --> 00:16:39,330 What, information teachers should follow, shouldn't follow. 247 00:16:39,330 --> 00:16:42,950 So until we have a good answer I'm not willing to do it. 248 00:16:42,950 --> 00:16:46,289 And also I think with schools, parent have some choice, about which schools 249 00:16:46,289 --> 00:16:51,710 they choose. So maybe that creates a benefit, as well. 250 00:16:51,710 --> 00:16:54,872 So if there's something like education, which I think there's tremendous 251 00:16:54,872 --> 00:16:58,187 androgenating with skills, and we don't have the right answer yet, I'm not too 252 00:16:58,187 --> 00:17:02,488 happy to regulate it. But if, if the world would change, as I'm 253 00:17:02,488 --> 00:17:06,128 hoping it would, and we understood much more about education, maybe I would be 254 00:17:06,128 --> 00:17:10,860 willing to do that as well. >> Alright. 255 00:17:10,860 --> 00:17:16,200 so one of your students wrote in about a big problem in Paris. 256 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:20,957 I don't know if you've heard about this but dog walkers, dog owners, are taking 257 00:17:20,957 --> 00:17:25,868 their dogs on walks and leaving their remains behind. 258 00:17:25,868 --> 00:17:27,830 >> The poop? >> The poop, yes. 259 00:17:27,830 --> 00:17:30,478 And apparently it's become this huge problem. 260 00:17:30,478 --> 00:17:35,210 people are being fined for doing it, if they're caught. 261 00:17:35,210 --> 00:17:36,962 But what are the chances they'll be caught? 262 00:17:36,962 --> 00:17:43,430 And is that a good solution, you think, to get people to pick up their dog poop? 263 00:17:43,430 --> 00:17:44,778 >> Shoot them. No. 264 00:17:44,778 --> 00:17:49,700 Big punishment; execute them. No. 265 00:17:49,700 --> 00:17:54,650 So this thing is going to relate very well to, Goldstein's lecture on social 266 00:17:54,650 --> 00:17:59,090 proof. So imagine the following you know that 267 00:17:59,090 --> 00:18:04,290 something is illegal, but everywhere you walk on the pavement you see signs of 268 00:18:04,290 --> 00:18:10,060 other people doing that. Which one of those two forces would win? 269 00:18:10,060 --> 00:18:14,152 The force that says this is illegal or the force that says everybody else is 270 00:18:14,152 --> 00:18:17,866 doing it? Probably the force that says everybody 271 00:18:17,866 --> 00:18:22,150 else is doing it is, is very important in, in clarifying this. 272 00:18:22,150 --> 00:18:25,300 And actually Cialdini and others have some really nice research. 273 00:18:25,300 --> 00:18:28,891 They show that if you go to a park, and there's lots of pieces of trash, people 274 00:18:28,891 --> 00:18:33,060 are very likely to throw another piece of trash there. 275 00:18:33,060 --> 00:18:38,668 But if you go and there's one piece of trash, now you're very unlikely to do it. 276 00:18:38,668 --> 00:18:41,100 Why? Because the single piece of trash. 277 00:18:41,100 --> 00:18:44,670 Make it saliant there is only one person who has done that. 278 00:18:44,670 --> 00:18:50,690 Everybody else has, is, has been nice. And it shows you how unpleasant it is. 279 00:18:50,690 --> 00:18:54,566 So if we follow this example, what I would do is I would put from time to 280 00:18:54,566 --> 00:18:59,140 time. I would put a piece of very smelly. 281 00:18:59,140 --> 00:19:03,084 Eh, particularly unpleasant poop. Just to demonstrate the effect, but make 282 00:19:03,084 --> 00:19:08,106 sure they are far and few between. Maybe we can create some industry of fake 283 00:19:08,106 --> 00:19:14,929 smelly eh, salient fake poop that would be helpful[COUGH] for that regard. 284 00:19:14,929 --> 00:19:19,900 And I think it would show both things. It would also show how unpleasant it is. 285 00:19:19,900 --> 00:19:24,300 And show, how, how unlikely it is. The problem, of course, is how do you 286 00:19:24,300 --> 00:19:28,012 move from a situation which everybody accepts this as a social norm to 287 00:19:28,012 --> 00:19:33,032 something that doesn't happen. You can think about lots of other cases 288 00:19:33,032 --> 00:19:35,810 like this. And not too long ago I got a, an e-mail 289 00:19:35,810 --> 00:19:40,190 from a woman in Greece. And she said it turns out we have to 290 00:19:40,190 --> 00:19:42,910 strat paying taxes. Why now? 291 00:19:42,910 --> 00:19:46,340 Why can't we start in a few months? She bought her house illegally. 292 00:19:46,340 --> 00:19:50,470 She was oging to sell it now, hopefully illegally in terms of without taxes. 293 00:19:50,470 --> 00:19:53,498 And now she has to pay taxes. She says can't they wait until after I 294 00:19:53,498 --> 00:19:57,241 finish selling my house? The problem is for those regulations in 295 00:19:57,241 --> 00:20:01,348 terms of a selfish motivation. There's never a good day. 296 00:20:01,348 --> 00:20:05,947 So, I think we need to think about this transition from a poopful society to a 297 00:20:05,947 --> 00:20:12,820 poopless society for the French and I think there's no smooth transition. 298 00:20:12,820 --> 00:20:16,280 You need to pick a, a quick transition. So, what I would do is. 299 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:21,768 I would announce a day. In which, this new regulation new rules 300 00:20:21,768 --> 00:20:24,150 would happen. That's the first thing. 301 00:20:24,150 --> 00:20:27,384 I would get people to sign up for that so everybody agreed in advance that that's 302 00:20:27,384 --> 00:20:32,362 the day people would change. And then I would accompany it with, fake 303 00:20:32,362 --> 00:20:37,367 smelly poop plus big fines and then start from that point to usher a much better 304 00:20:37,367 --> 00:20:43,901 social process. >> Alright, Veks Melipu. 305 00:20:43,901 --> 00:20:46,770 >> You know what, maybe one more thing. you know, the French, at least 306 00:20:46,770 --> 00:20:50,858 culturally, I'm, I'm just kind of riffing on cultural stereotypes, I think are very 307 00:20:50,858 --> 00:20:54,714 proud of their culture. What if you told them it's only the 308 00:20:54,714 --> 00:20:56,680 British who are doing that? [LAUGH] 309 00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,986 >> [LAUGH] Would all of a sudden, French pride be connected to not doing 310 00:20:59,986 --> 00:21:02,470 that? >> be doing that. 311 00:21:02,470 --> 00:21:04,013 That will be a fun experiement. >> we can do that. 312 00:21:04,013 --> 00:21:07,143 Alright. You talk about how much you love movies. 313 00:21:07,143 --> 00:21:11,018 [CROSSTALK] >> I do love movies. 314 00:21:11,018 --> 00:21:14,326 >> Yeah. Would you recommend some movies for, for 315 00:21:14,326 --> 00:21:18,999 your students to watch? >> Recommend some movies? 316 00:21:18,999 --> 00:21:26,084 So, one of the movies, eh, that kind of made a big impact on me, eh, was Harold 317 00:21:26,084 --> 00:21:31,168 and Maude. It's was an old movie, probably came out 318 00:21:31,168 --> 00:21:34,916 before your time. >> I've seen it[LAUGH] And I think it 319 00:21:34,916 --> 00:21:40,200 actually gave me a very different perspective on. 320 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:46,648 On aging and, and life cycle and on what causes people to be happy. 321 00:21:46,648 --> 00:21:52,598 so and from that prospective it's a movie that stay with me for, for a long tome 322 00:21:52,598 --> 00:21:58,980 and I think had kind of a, a, thoughtful influence on me. 323 00:21:58,980 --> 00:22:04,339 So that's That would definitely be, be one. 324 00:22:04,339 --> 00:22:09,565 another movie that kind of links to these notions of dishonesty we're going to talk 325 00:22:09,565 --> 00:22:13,921 about is the Godfather. And if you think about that movie, or the 326 00:22:13,921 --> 00:22:18,358 series of movies. what is so interesting there, this was 327 00:22:18,358 --> 00:22:25,870 my, my first time I actually thought about the mob, uh,um, organized crime. 328 00:22:25,870 --> 00:22:29,665 And what, what's so interesting about it is, the sense of what is acceptable and 329 00:22:29,665 --> 00:22:33,020 not acceptable, the sense of what is legal and not legal, what is moral and 330 00:22:33,020 --> 00:22:39,344 not moral, where the boundaries are. And, and I think there's lots of lessons 331 00:22:39,344 --> 00:22:44,080 from there to not just for the crime families, but for all of us about how do 332 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:51,736 we draw the lines of morality, around us. So that would be another one. 333 00:22:51,736 --> 00:22:56,498 oh, can I say something about books? >> Sure. 334 00:22:56,498 --> 00:23:00,938 >> So, my favorite all-time book, it's a, it's a short book, it's by Jerome K 335 00:23:00,938 --> 00:23:06,774 Jerome, called Three Men in a Boat. And it was written a long time ago, and 336 00:23:06,774 --> 00:23:10,614 one of the reasons I like this book so much is that I think it has such a deep 337 00:23:10,614 --> 00:23:16,674 understanding of psychology. He has a deep understanding of how people 338 00:23:16,674 --> 00:23:20,030 feel about sharing labor, that everybody is working more. 339 00:23:20,030 --> 00:23:22,400 He has a deep understanding of how people think about time. 340 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:27,145 There's all kind of fantastic insights in this book about how people think about 341 00:23:27,145 --> 00:23:31,160 themselves, society their friends and so on. 342 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,448 And, it's wonderful to see a book that was written, I don't know, 120 years ago 343 00:23:35,448 --> 00:23:40,388 with so much relevance new onset to our society. 344 00:23:40,388 --> 00:23:42,308 >> Right. Right. 345 00:23:42,308 --> 00:23:46,141 >> I'm getting great that I feel? [LAUGH] 346 00:23:46,141 --> 00:23:49,098 >> A plus. Would you like to share one one of the 347 00:23:49,098 --> 00:23:53,594 stories. Jerome K Jerome because there's some good 348 00:23:53,594 --> 00:23:56,240 ones. >> There's lots of good ones 349 00:23:57,410 --> 00:24:00,948 I think, I think that the story I of the ones I like the most is the beginning 350 00:24:00,948 --> 00:24:04,486 part of the book and in the beginning part of the book he feels that he is not 351 00:24:04,486 --> 00:24:09,604 feeling well. and he sees an ad in the newspaper saying 352 00:24:09,604 --> 00:24:14,454 these are the symptoms for hepatitis. You might feel weak and you're not as 353 00:24:14,454 --> 00:24:18,608 strong and you feel tired and you don't feel like working and this probably means 354 00:24:18,608 --> 00:24:23,730 you have a hepatitis and here's a potion you should take. 355 00:24:23,730 --> 00:24:26,892 By the way, at that time there was no solution for a hepatitis but it was some 356 00:24:26,892 --> 00:24:32,170 kind of potion that you should take for it, see somebody was trying to sell it. 357 00:24:32,170 --> 00:24:35,708 And the hero of the, of the story says, oh I just realized when I was a kid 358 00:24:35,708 --> 00:24:40,408 everybody thought I was lazy. Everybody thought I was just not 359 00:24:40,408 --> 00:24:43,058 interested. In fact, I had hepatitis and everybody 360 00:24:43,058 --> 00:24:47,346 was just torturing me for no good reason, and[COUGH], and this, of course, is, is 361 00:24:47,346 --> 00:24:51,479 about two things. It's about the fact that when you see a 362 00:24:51,479 --> 00:24:54,860 list of illnesses of something, you can always recognize yourself, what's really 363 00:24:54,860 --> 00:24:58,454 easy. To recognize yourself in it and it's also 364 00:24:58,454 --> 00:25:02,262 about the power of placebos, that it reminds you about how many illnesses have 365 00:25:02,262 --> 00:25:06,646 been cured by placebo. By the way in that particular case the 366 00:25:06,646 --> 00:25:09,994 hero of the story says that when his grandmother would spank him he would be 367 00:25:09,994 --> 00:25:13,396 automatically cured of his hepatitis and it would help him a lot to get extra 368 00:25:13,396 --> 00:25:18,021 energy. [LAUGH] to go to school but I think this 369 00:25:18,021 --> 00:25:22,116 whole notion about medicine and how to we read diseases into something and how 370 00:25:22,116 --> 00:25:26,211 psychological are diseases or, what, what's the state of mind that gets you to 371 00:25:26,211 --> 00:25:34,179 be miserable versus not. Plus placebos are very, very helpful. 372 00:25:35,290 --> 00:25:39,740 It's also interesting how often we want to find a name for something. 373 00:25:39,740 --> 00:25:43,900 So I've been thinking a lot about Attention Deficit Disorder. 374 00:25:43,900 --> 00:25:47,786 A lot of parents seems to me like they are motivated to have a diagnosis for the 375 00:25:47,786 --> 00:25:51,340 kids as having Attention Deficit Disorder. 376 00:25:51,340 --> 00:25:54,706 And I think that they, again this is just intuition, I have no data, but I think at 377 00:25:54,706 --> 00:25:57,810 the moment you have a label for something. 378 00:25:57,810 --> 00:26:01,165 All of a sudden it's not a bad kid, or it's not a, over active kid, or it's not 379 00:26:01,165 --> 00:26:04,290 your fault. It's just a disease. 380 00:26:04,290 --> 00:26:07,653 So I'm, I'm very interested in this notion that the moment we can call 381 00:26:07,653 --> 00:26:11,488 something by a name, particularly by a logical name, and associate some brain 382 00:26:11,488 --> 00:26:15,960 function with it. All of a sudden the separation in our 383 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:20,438 personal responsibility changes. So if, if we have an overactive kid who 384 00:26:20,438 --> 00:26:24,586 is just, you know, unpleasant to be around, maybe it's tough as the parent 385 00:26:24,586 --> 00:26:29,640 for that kid to, how you think about yourself. 386 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,664 But if the kid has an overactive pituitary gland or an overactive 387 00:26:32,664 --> 00:26:36,080 something else, all of a sudden you probably don't feel guilty to the same 388 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,779 degree. So I think even that aspect about how do 389 00:26:39,779 --> 00:26:43,363 we name things, label them and how, what's the relationship between debt and 390 00:26:43,363 --> 00:26:48,200 responsibility is very interesting. >> Alright. 391 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:53,656 So, if you were to design a wellness program, would you create one that find 392 00:26:53,656 --> 00:27:01,432 people for engaging in unhealthy behaviors or pay them to be healthy. 393 00:27:01,432 --> 00:27:07,582 >> Yep, so I think it would depend. So here's the thing. 394 00:27:07,582 --> 00:27:10,280 in general we have this principle of loss of version. 395 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:14,680 Loss of version shows that people hate losing more than they enjoy gaining. 396 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:18,370 So if every time you behave badly I would take two dollars away from you. 397 00:27:18,370 --> 00:27:21,826 That would be more influential than if every time you behave nicely I gave you 398 00:27:21,826 --> 00:27:26,269 two dollars alright so. So it's cheaper to take money away from 399 00:27:26,269 --> 00:27:28,886 people. Actually it could be beneficial. 400 00:27:28,886 --> 00:27:31,288 >> [LAUGH] Yeah. >> you can even make money from them. 401 00:27:31,288 --> 00:27:34,680 [SOUND] So, so that's the first thing, however, what we need to ask ourself is 402 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,860 whether we want to create a long term intervention or whether we want the 403 00:27:37,860 --> 00:27:43,980 intervention to be there for awhile and then we take the money away. 404 00:27:43,980 --> 00:27:46,857 So here's the thing. If you punish people, you punish, you 405 00:27:46,857 --> 00:27:50,186 punish, you punish, you punish. You get people to behave a certain way, 406 00:27:50,186 --> 00:27:52,660 what happens when the punishment goes away? 407 00:27:52,660 --> 00:27:58,390 Would people all of a sudden keep on with that behavior or will they revert? 408 00:27:58,390 --> 00:28:00,820 And you can think about what will happen on the positive side. 409 00:28:00,820 --> 00:28:03,620 You reward people, you rew, you reward people and so on now you take it away. 410 00:28:03,620 --> 00:28:07,720 What will happen now? And our general understanding is that 411 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:14,460 when punishment is present, it's more powerful than a reward. 412 00:28:14,460 --> 00:28:18,876 But when the reward and punishment go away, it's the reward behavior that can 413 00:28:18,876 --> 00:28:22,781 continue. So if I rewarded you for some particular 414 00:28:22,781 --> 00:28:27,934 behavior, after awhile you might find internal joy in that behavior. 415 00:28:27,934 --> 00:28:31,716 Exercising, eating your vegetables, whatever it is, you would actually 416 00:28:31,716 --> 00:28:35,622 transistion from depending on the external reward to having some internal 417 00:28:35,622 --> 00:28:40,208 reward to that. With punishment, that transition is much, 418 00:28:40,208 --> 00:28:42,671 much harder. So I would ask the question of whether 419 00:28:42,671 --> 00:28:46,095 I'm going to continue with the punishment and the reward for a long time. 420 00:28:46,095 --> 00:28:50,979 And whether this is the kind of behavior that is, has a chance of getting habit or 421 00:28:50,979 --> 00:28:54,440 not. And if it has a chance of gtting into a 422 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:58,080 habit, and if it's something that I'm going to stop, the, the contigency of the 423 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:02,140 reward and punishment, I would go with rewards. 424 00:29:02,140 --> 00:29:06,614 >> Alright, alright. Isn't there some research showing that 425 00:29:06,614 --> 00:29:11,414 when you reward people, people for doing things that are intrinsically motivated 426 00:29:11,414 --> 00:29:17,512 it become the extrinsic reward so it takes the place of the intrinsic. 427 00:29:17,512 --> 00:29:18,552 >> Yeah. >> Reward. 428 00:29:18,552 --> 00:29:21,652 >> So if you start with the situation of something that the people are happy to 429 00:29:21,652 --> 00:29:24,852 do, you stop with something that it is,intrinsic motivation and then you add 430 00:29:24,852 --> 00:29:29,450 money to it you can actually reduce the intrinsic motivation. 431 00:29:29,450 --> 00:29:34,715 So the most famous study on this was in, in I think 1973, and the took kids and 432 00:29:34,715 --> 00:29:40,568 they said, here are magic markers. Why don't you draw with these magic 433 00:29:40,568 --> 00:29:44,208 markers and they gave these magic markers to kids and they said every a day we will 434 00:29:44,208 --> 00:29:49,505 pick a kid that has the best drawing and we'll give the kids a prize. 435 00:29:49,505 --> 00:29:54,010 And they did it for a while, and they stopped the prizes. 436 00:29:54,010 --> 00:29:55,980 What happened? the kids stopped playing with magic 437 00:29:55,980 --> 00:30:00,013 markers and went back to crayons. This was a new technology and the kids 438 00:30:00,013 --> 00:30:05,123 basically with defining this behavior as a behavior with a contingency that 439 00:30:05,123 --> 00:30:11,632 basically reduced intrinsic motivation. The, the kind of things that, that we're 440 00:30:11,632 --> 00:30:15,652 talking about is to take something that has no intrinsic value in the beginning, 441 00:30:15,652 --> 00:30:20,604 in, in health behavior. Right, you're not really motivated 442 00:30:20,604 --> 00:30:24,760 towards running or exercising or eating better. 443 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:29,890 And we're trying to see whether we can over time get you to have some of that. 444 00:30:29,890 --> 00:30:32,977 but if we started with something that had a high potential for intrinsic 445 00:30:32,977 --> 00:30:36,780 motivation, I wouldn't necessarily try to add payment to that. 446 00:30:36,780 --> 00:30:40,640 I would just try to add payment for this if it was something like running. 447 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,632 So here's an interesting thing. They tell me, as you can see I'm not a 448 00:30:43,632 --> 00:30:46,802 runner. But they tell me that if you run for six 449 00:30:46,802 --> 00:30:52,554 weeks you develop intrinsic motivation. You start getting used to it, you crave 450 00:30:52,554 --> 00:30:55,540 the adrenaline rush. You start setting up in your day. 451 00:30:55,540 --> 00:30:58,890 And you start creating it. So presuming you can pay me for six 452 00:30:58,890 --> 00:31:03,080 months, they start getting extra kind of pleasure from that. 453 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,770 And then you can stop. And then they would presumably continue. 454 00:31:06,770 --> 00:31:11,054 But, but you're right, it is question for how long you continue, and what's the 455 00:31:11,054 --> 00:31:15,401 starting point, and can you actually pay people too much so that it counteracts 456 00:31:15,401 --> 00:31:19,181 their intrinsic motivation is also possible, and we need to worry about 457 00:31:19,181 --> 00:31:24,285 that. >> Excellent, I would love to get paid 458 00:31:24,285 --> 00:31:26,135 to exercise. [LAUGH] 459 00:31:26,135 --> 00:31:26,853 >> You do? >> Yeah. 460 00:31:26,853 --> 00:31:28,260 >> Over six weeks? >> [LAUGH] Oh, alright. 461 00:31:28,260 --> 00:31:29,930 >> Running every day? >> How much? 462 00:31:29,930 --> 00:31:31,290 >> I don't know, how much, how much do you need? 463 00:31:31,290 --> 00:31:34,422 >> How much do I need It's going to take a lot. 464 00:31:34,422 --> 00:31:35,996 [LAUGH] >> Give me a number. 465 00:31:35,996 --> 00:31:38,840 >> $200 a day. >> $200 is great. 466 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,560 And we know that a[UNKNOWN] version works better. 467 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:45,615 So from now on every day you don't run you pay me $200? 468 00:31:45,615 --> 00:31:50,765 >> No. [LAUGH] I don't think so. 469 00:31:50,765 --> 00:31:53,976 [LAUGH] Alright. Someone asks what color socks you're 470 00:31:53,976 --> 00:31:56,992 wearing. So you can just, show them. 471 00:31:56,992 --> 00:32:03,720 >> So I, I wear, these, these socks have multiple colors actually. 472 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:08,328 And so there, there was a company called Littlemissmatch and they sell three socks 473 00:32:08,328 --> 00:32:11,838 in a package. And all of them are slightly, are 474 00:32:11,838 --> 00:32:15,704 slightly different. And I did a research project a while ago 475 00:32:15,704 --> 00:32:20,312 on one of the biggest mysteries in the universe, which is, how can people lose 476 00:32:20,312 --> 00:32:26,090 so many sockses, like, what happens to all the sockses? 477 00:32:26,090 --> 00:32:27,928 Or to all the socks. Say socks. 478 00:32:27,928 --> 00:32:29,225 Socks, socks. >> [LAUGH]. 479 00:32:29,225 --> 00:32:35,154 >> And we, we tried different, different accounts of, of the mystery. 480 00:32:35,154 --> 00:32:42,600 and one of the reason turns out that people over count missing socks. 481 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,736 So people often have some socks in the laundry room and some in the basket, and 482 00:32:45,736 --> 00:32:49,070 maybe some socks in the suitcase, and so on. 483 00:32:49,070 --> 00:32:52,608 And you see one sock from a pair here, but you don't see the other part of the 484 00:32:52,608 --> 00:32:55,738 pair. Then later on, you see the other member 485 00:32:55,738 --> 00:32:59,194 of that pair somewhere else, but you don't remember that you just saw the, the 486 00:32:59,194 --> 00:33:03,902 sock, so you double count it. So people double count missing socks. 487 00:33:03,902 --> 00:33:07,241 And, anyway, I was obsessed with figure out this mystery, you know, how many 488 00:33:07,241 --> 00:33:10,375 socks go, disappear in the dryer and so on. 489 00:33:10,375 --> 00:33:14,281 And when I was introduced to this revolutionary idea of selling three socks 490 00:33:14,281 --> 00:33:18,063 that are all slightly different and therefore all fit, I figure this will 491 00:33:18,063 --> 00:33:23,777 solve the mystery of missing socks. I will never have to look at a single 492 00:33:23,777 --> 00:33:27,250 sock and say, where is the pair of that socks. 493 00:33:27,250 --> 00:33:29,505 It also turns out it's ideal for travelling. 494 00:33:29,505 --> 00:33:31,682 I just take a pile of socks. >> [LAUGH]. 495 00:33:31,682 --> 00:33:34,183 >> There's never a reason, there's never a reason to put two together, like, 496 00:33:34,183 --> 00:33:36,858 this, this. Think about taking two socks and put them 497 00:33:36,858 --> 00:33:40,007 together and folding a little bit again, that's when you realize you're missing 498 00:33:40,007 --> 00:33:42,390 one. Terrible why wouldn't it. 499 00:33:42,390 --> 00:33:45,240 So now, I have a pile of socks, they all look quite differently. 500 00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,924 By the way, today I, just so happened, I picked two that look the same but it 501 00:33:47,924 --> 00:33:53,265 doesn't have to be. I have decreased dramatically my anxiety 502 00:33:53,265 --> 00:33:58,081 about life[LAUGH] Wow. [LAUGH]. 503 00:33:58,081 --> 00:34:01,226 >> Maybe I should get. >> You can see I am clearly interested 504 00:34:01,226 --> 00:34:04,203 in this topic. >> Yeah, yeah, very passionate about 505 00:34:04,203 --> 00:34:06,327 it. oh man. 506 00:34:06,327 --> 00:34:08,352 Okay. so. 507 00:34:08,352 --> 00:34:12,975 To what extend do you think individual behavior drives collective behavior and 508 00:34:12,975 --> 00:34:18,434 vice versa, collective behavior driving an individual's behavior. 509 00:34:18,434 --> 00:34:23,820 >> So, so I think both, both of those take, take place. 510 00:34:23,820 --> 00:34:27,600 So lets, lets think for a second about the case in which Individual behavior 511 00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:32,567 drives collective behavior. imagine that you're in a stadium watching 512 00:34:32,567 --> 00:34:36,402 some football game for example, and all of a sudden one person you know, paints 513 00:34:36,402 --> 00:34:41,060 half of their body blue and half their body white. 514 00:34:41,060 --> 00:34:43,876 And they take their shirt off and start jumping up and down and cheering and so 515 00:34:43,876 --> 00:34:47,144 on. Ask yourself what is the what's the odds 516 00:34:47,144 --> 00:34:50,798 that all of a sudden you would feel more comfortable doing the same, the same 517 00:34:50,798 --> 00:34:54,509 thing. And the reality is that it's really easy 518 00:34:54,509 --> 00:34:58,279 to, to create there's some well known people who are getting paid to a lot of 519 00:34:58,279 --> 00:35:01,991 money to be exactly that a, actor and they go to sporting event and getting the 520 00:35:01,991 --> 00:35:07,910 whole crowd to be wild. And it is because, when everybody is 521 00:35:07,910 --> 00:35:11,214 sitting, one person who stands up is incredibly saliant, you see their 522 00:35:11,214 --> 00:35:14,798 behavior and they establish a new norm, and everybody actually wants to get a 523 00:35:14,798 --> 00:35:20,298 little crazy and wild in games. That's why we, we go, you don't want to 524 00:35:20,298 --> 00:35:25,389 sit there, quiet and drink your tea. And, so, so it, because of that, things 525 00:35:25,389 --> 00:35:29,549 can escalate to a higher degree, and by the way you can also think about things 526 00:35:29,549 --> 00:35:35,188 like riots, in this case. we've had lots of demonstrations in 527 00:35:35,188 --> 00:35:39,988 recent mem, memory around the world, and you can ask yourself what differentiates 528 00:35:39,988 --> 00:35:43,764 cases in which the demonstrations were peaceful, and that cases with a 529 00:35:43,764 --> 00:35:48,244 demonstration became violent, and you can say maybe it's about the people, or maybe 530 00:35:48,244 --> 00:35:55,214 it's the organization. But the reality is that you don't need 531 00:35:55,214 --> 00:35:59,950 much to take a peaceful demonstration, maybe one or two, extreme outlyers of 532 00:35:59,950 --> 00:36:06,370 misbehavior can actually get the whole mob to to follow them. 533 00:36:06,370 --> 00:36:08,700 I think it's an important realization to, to have. 534 00:36:08,700 --> 00:36:13,047 So these are cases in which a few examples of people can actually lead the 535 00:36:13,047 --> 00:36:17,828 whole, the whole crowd. And then the opposite happens, as well. 536 00:36:17,828 --> 00:36:21,854 Eh, once we see lots of people behaving in a certain way, that creates the social 537 00:36:21,854 --> 00:36:25,696 norm of what is acceptable. And there's a good chance that we would 538 00:36:25,696 --> 00:36:29,332 follow, as well. And, just as an intuitive example, 539 00:36:29,332 --> 00:36:33,800 imagine that you were in some room with lots of people. 540 00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:37,621 All of sudden there were fire alarms. Right, and everybody's running in one, 541 00:36:37,621 --> 00:36:40,800 one direction. Ask yourself whether you would stop, look 542 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,470 around and say hey. Where should I go? 543 00:36:43,470 --> 00:36:47,470 Everybody's running that way but maybe there are other exits in other places. 544 00:36:47,470 --> 00:36:51,318 Very hard to think about this right? Most likely you would just basically be 545 00:36:51,318 --> 00:36:55,301 drawn to whatever other people are doing and indeed every time. 546 00:36:55,301 --> 00:36:59,063 Almost every time that there's a fire in some public domain, you find that there 547 00:36:59,063 --> 00:37:02,654 are some exits where people did not have enough time to escape from, and some 548 00:37:02,654 --> 00:37:08,128 people were run over, and so on. And some exited that were empty and 549 00:37:08,128 --> 00:37:12,491 nobody went to them. And it's because we have this tremendous 550 00:37:12,491 --> 00:37:17,930 urge to follow other people. >> Well that's a depressing note to end 551 00:37:17,930 --> 00:37:19,851 on. >> That's a depressing note, so can 552 00:37:19,851 --> 00:37:23,462 you, maybe, ask me a happy question? >> Yeah, okay, let's get a different 553 00:37:23,462 --> 00:37:26,462 one. I'm not actually, your answer to this may 554 00:37:26,462 --> 00:37:32,178 be pretty depressing tool, so, you talk about the identifiable victim effect. 555 00:37:32,178 --> 00:37:34,563 >> Yep. >> And, one person asked if you have a 556 00:37:34,563 --> 00:37:38,787 non-profit, and you're looking for donations for your charity let's say 557 00:37:38,787 --> 00:37:42,681 would it be more effective to show the smiling face of the people who've 558 00:37:42,681 --> 00:37:49,576 received help, or the suffering faces of people who need your help? 559 00:37:49,576 --> 00:37:56,580 >> Yeah, so, so I think suffering is more powerful than happiness. 560 00:37:56,580 --> 00:38:01,372 And so, so it's nice to know that the people we've helped are happy now. 561 00:38:01,372 --> 00:38:04,988 Eh, but this is about the money that they have received already. 562 00:38:04,988 --> 00:38:09,130 Eh, if we want to motivate people it is about, it is about caring. 563 00:38:09,130 --> 00:38:15,485 And caring comes from empathy. And we don't have the same amount of 564 00:38:15,485 --> 00:38:18,526 empathy to happiness than we are to, to misery. 565 00:38:18,526 --> 00:38:21,758 Actually, this might depress you more. If, if, if you think about it, it's 566 00:38:21,758 --> 00:38:25,654 actually kind of interesting. imagine you were running a lab on 567 00:38:25,654 --> 00:38:28,654 happiness. And ask yourself, what could you do to 568 00:38:28,654 --> 00:38:31,922 get people to be happier? Like, what kinds of things could you do 569 00:38:31,922 --> 00:38:37,636 in a lab, to get people to be happier? You would quickly find out that we don't 570 00:38:37,636 --> 00:38:42,660 have many tools, right. Chocolate, food, sex, maybe some music. 571 00:38:42,660 --> 00:38:45,540 I mean, all of those make people a little happy, but they all have diminishing 572 00:38:45,540 --> 00:38:48,888 returns. Right, there's some limit to what you can 573 00:38:48,888 --> 00:38:52,310 get in terms of food, music, sex and so on. 574 00:38:52,310 --> 00:38:56,052 What about misery? Alright if you had a lab for misery what 575 00:38:56,052 --> 00:39:00,430 kind of things could you create to get people to be miserable. 576 00:39:00,430 --> 00:39:03,817 Lots of ways to be miserable right. I mean there's lots of ways to inflict 577 00:39:03,817 --> 00:39:07,400 pain, lots of ways to inflict emotional pain, electrical trucks. 578 00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:10,032 I mean, just think about all the things we can do and what even is more 579 00:39:10,032 --> 00:39:13,987 distressing is that. Well happiness, how much food can you 580 00:39:13,987 --> 00:39:16,210 have? At some point food if you ate more and 581 00:39:16,210 --> 00:39:20,135 more it will actually be negative. Electrical shocks there's no limit to how 582 00:39:20,135 --> 00:39:23,315 much misery we can create, it doesn't have the same level of diminishing 583 00:39:23,315 --> 00:39:26,873 return. So for some reason and you can speculate 584 00:39:26,873 --> 00:39:30,655 why this is, evolutionarily, we have a much more, much higher capacity for 585 00:39:30,655 --> 00:39:34,744 misery. Then we have a capacity for happiness, 586 00:39:34,744 --> 00:39:38,962 and you know, you can argue that,[COUGH], happiness draws us and misery gets us to 587 00:39:38,962 --> 00:39:43,962 go away from somebody and you can say it may be evolutionary. 588 00:39:43,962 --> 00:39:47,050 happiness is good but misery can kill us, right. 589 00:39:47,050 --> 00:39:50,030 So if you eat something good you might get to live another day. 590 00:39:50,030 --> 00:39:52,140 If you eat poison you die. Today. 591 00:39:52,140 --> 00:39:54,610 So maybe there's a reason for this losser version. 592 00:39:54,610 --> 00:39:57,210 Maybe there's a reason for the negativity bias. 593 00:39:57,210 --> 00:40:00,785 That's why we pay much more attention downside, because the downside can kill 594 00:40:00,785 --> 00:40:04,710 us. It has infinite negative payoff. 595 00:40:04,710 --> 00:40:07,944 The upside can have, can be better but it's not, it's not really symmetrical and 596 00:40:07,944 --> 00:40:12,780 maybe that's one way why we have evolved to pay more attention to. 597 00:40:12,780 --> 00:40:17,492 At misery than, than happiness. Eh, but because of this appeals, that are 598 00:40:17,492 --> 00:40:22,178 based on misery are, are just much more enticing, much more captivating they, 599 00:40:22,178 --> 00:40:26,798 much more emotional, much more compelling and the, the range that you can actually, 600 00:40:26,798 --> 00:40:30,824 eh, get people to emote and to feel emotion, it's just much, much higher on 601 00:40:30,824 --> 00:40:37,500 the negative side, than the positive side. 602 00:40:37,500 --> 00:40:39,904 Am I depressing you more? >> Yeah, a little bit. 603 00:40:39,904 --> 00:40:42,572 >> So, so ask me somthing happy. >> Alright. 604 00:40:42,572 --> 00:40:46,580 ask you something happy. this might be semi neutral[LAUGH]. 605 00:40:46,580 --> 00:40:52,543 How can an understanding of decision making be used in negotiation? 606 00:40:52,543 --> 00:40:57,960 >> In negotiation, so lots of, lots of things in, in negotiation. 607 00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,995 [COUGH] . I, I would say maybe to think about first 608 00:41:00,995 --> 00:41:06,355 of all about anchoring, right. So, anchoring is the idea that we started 609 00:41:06,355 --> 00:41:10,183 the discussion in a particular point, and there's a good chance the discussion 610 00:41:10,183 --> 00:41:16,442 would end at that at that point. So if you're going into negotiation the 611 00:41:16,442 --> 00:41:22,880 question is what is the right way to start a negotiation? 612 00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:24,490 So I think that that will be the first thing. 613 00:41:24,490 --> 00:41:27,572 What is the number that you want to throw out, first that will lead the discussion 614 00:41:27,572 --> 00:41:31,558 depending on which side you are you want it to be either high or low. 615 00:41:31,558 --> 00:41:36,244 In negotiation there's also this basic principle called a BATNA, the, the best 616 00:41:36,244 --> 00:41:41,916 alternative to a negotiated agreement. And the idea is that, when we negotiate, 617 00:41:41,916 --> 00:41:45,240 we can get all excited about the negotiation. 618 00:41:45,240 --> 00:41:48,774 But it's actually important to remember what happen if you don't come to an 619 00:41:48,774 --> 00:41:53,180 agreement in a negotiation. So, good negotiators come up in advance 620 00:41:53,180 --> 00:41:57,210 and say to themselves, let me be clear about what would be my benefits and costs 621 00:41:57,210 --> 00:42:02,865 if we don't come to an agreement. And this way as you go into negotiation, 622 00:42:02,865 --> 00:42:07,019 you don't get kind of too excited about the process because you continuously 623 00:42:07,019 --> 00:42:12,014 compare it to something else which is your anchor point. 624 00:42:12,014 --> 00:42:17,264 And there's less of a chance that if you get to it not so good agreement you would 625 00:42:17,264 --> 00:42:23,095 actually, go ahead with this. And other things that are important about 626 00:42:23,095 --> 00:42:27,448 negotiation is to understand emotions. Emotions could be either in your favor or 627 00:42:27,448 --> 00:42:31,158 can play against you. What emotions do you want in the 628 00:42:31,158 --> 00:42:34,718 negotiation room. I think it's also something important to 629 00:42:34,718 --> 00:42:37,425 think about. But in general negotiation is just ah,a 630 00:42:37,425 --> 00:42:41,000 prolonged decision making with some, with some rounds, and I think lots of the 631 00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:45,862 lessons that we have from decision making apply to there as well. 632 00:42:45,862 --> 00:42:48,000 >> Alright. >> You know what? 633 00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:52,800 Let me say something you know, of course you can think about a personal 634 00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:58,714 relationship as negotiation as well. Think about something like marriage. 635 00:42:58,714 --> 00:43:04,520 so a couple of years ago I went on a website called stupid.com. 636 00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:09,245 And I found this little game and the game had two rods that you and I would hold 637 00:43:09,245 --> 00:43:13,744 for example. And every second there was an electrical 638 00:43:13,744 --> 00:43:18,640 shock that became stronger and stronger and stronger and stronger. 639 00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:22,904 And the game kept going on and on and on, until one person left. 640 00:43:22,904 --> 00:43:28,410 So, the question is, who would win at the end, and who would lose. 641 00:43:28,410 --> 00:43:31,545 But if you think about it, it was a process in which every second was 642 00:43:31,545 --> 00:43:34,740 painful. And it's a game that has two elements. 643 00:43:34,740 --> 00:43:37,925 It has an element of somebody would win at the end, so it's a competition, but it 644 00:43:37,925 --> 00:43:43,105 also has an element of coordination. Because if the competition lasts longer, 645 00:43:43,105 --> 00:43:46,599 everybody suffers more. So, we had the idea of, that this is a 646 00:43:46,599 --> 00:43:50,810 little bit like couples fighting. So if you're married to somebody and 647 00:43:50,810 --> 00:43:53,960 you're dating somebody, and you're fighting, every moment of fighting you 648 00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:57,260 both lose, in some sense you're both miserable. 649 00:43:57,260 --> 00:43:59,240 Now at the end of the day, somebody would win. 650 00:43:59,240 --> 00:44:03,660 But if you could only agree early on about who would win, you will avoid a lot 651 00:44:03,660 --> 00:44:08,464 of suffering and misery. So, so I think that's another kind of 652 00:44:08,464 --> 00:44:13,000 good metaphor to think about negotiation, not all negotiation, but some negotiation 653 00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:17,410 in which the process itself is incredibly unpleasant, and then the question is, how 654 00:44:17,410 --> 00:44:23,220 do you get the process to become to terminate faster. 655 00:44:23,220 --> 00:44:27,120 And at least in, in the way that marriages go or relationships go, that's 656 00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:31,085 there used to be this, psychology psychological wisdom of what's called 657 00:44:31,085 --> 00:44:35,978 active listening. Yes honey, I hear you, I understand you 658 00:44:35,978 --> 00:44:40,120 and so on kind of deep engagement in the process. 659 00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:43,816 Here is what happened and so on, it turns out saying yes, dear, is much, much more 660 00:44:43,816 --> 00:44:47,064 beneficial, both to finish that particular debate, but also to have a 661 00:44:47,064 --> 00:44:52,480 lower chance of having debates later. So that's another lesson on negotiation. 662 00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,826 A good lesson. >> But you don't say it with sarcasm. 663 00:44:55,826 --> 00:44:57,336 >> [LAUGH]. No, no sarcasm. 664 00:44:57,336 --> 00:45:01,217 But it has to fell natural. >> Right, right. 665 00:45:01,217 --> 00:45:07,727 I can see how this can also be applied in work relationships with your co-workers. 666 00:45:07,727 --> 00:45:12,116 >> You're absolutely right. >> We should try it[LAUGH] So, there's 667 00:45:12,116 --> 00:45:16,873 been a lot of discussion about our Don't Click Here button. 668 00:45:16,873 --> 00:45:18,480 Yes. >> It's on the website. 669 00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:21,844 Would you like to tell the students what's behind that? 670 00:45:21,844 --> 00:45:25,464 >> Well, it's just clear. You just can't click. 671 00:45:25,464 --> 00:45:26,440 >> Right. Okay. 672 00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,536 Moving on. >> You're not allowed to click. 673 00:45:29,536 --> 00:45:30,520 >> No, no. >> Please don't click. 674 00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:32,192 >> It says don't, so honestly. >> Yeah, so you shouldn't. 675 00:45:32,192 --> 00:45:32,850 >> -- you shouldn't. No. 676 00:45:32,850 --> 00:45:35,646 Okay. >> Just wanted to clarify that. 677 00:45:35,646 --> 00:45:39,079 >> Yeah. >> and let's finish with this last 678 00:45:39,079 --> 00:45:43,250 question. I think we've taken up quite a bit of 679 00:45:43,250 --> 00:45:45,269 time here. you 680 00:45:45,269 --> 00:45:48,040 >> Are you telling me something, is it too boring or No, no, no, no. 681 00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:50,351 It's scintillating. >> Okay. 682 00:45:50,351 --> 00:45:52,991 [LAUGH] >> You talk a lot about the need for 683 00:45:52,991 --> 00:45:57,160 experimentation and testing our intuitions. 684 00:45:57,160 --> 00:46:01,996 How can maybe a small business or[COUGH] just someone who wants to do an 685 00:46:01,996 --> 00:46:07,112 experiment on their own, do so cheaply and easily? 686 00:46:07,112 --> 00:46:12,480 >> So, so the key to any experiment is a control group. 687 00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,510 That's really the, the key. I mean, it's, it's very tempting to say, 688 00:46:15,510 --> 00:46:19,480 okay, I think this would work better than what I have now, so. 689 00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:23,933 Imagine just for fun that you're have a particular meal that you're cooking a lot 690 00:46:23,933 --> 00:46:28,960 of times and you got, you got used to that particular meal. 691 00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:32,742 And you say to yourself, I think I want to start cooking something very 692 00:46:32,742 --> 00:46:37,858 differently and you just start cooking something very differently. 693 00:46:37,858 --> 00:46:41,750 And, the question is is this going to be better? 694 00:46:41,750 --> 00:46:45,776 Now if you just start doing something differently you're going to compare what 695 00:46:45,776 --> 00:46:49,850 you're experiencing now to your memory, from before. 696 00:46:49,850 --> 00:46:52,937 Or you're going to, to ask other people to experience what they're doing now 697 00:46:52,937 --> 00:46:58,858 compared to some other reference group. But it might not be that easy. 698 00:46:58,858 --> 00:47:02,028 and it might not be easy, because lots of other things might have changed. 699 00:47:02,028 --> 00:47:06,339 Maybe your, weight has changed. Maybe it's, the time of the year has 700 00:47:06,339 --> 00:47:09,138 changed. Maybe your memory is not that good. 701 00:47:09,138 --> 00:47:14,026 So, the key to experiments is really having two things to compare. 702 00:47:14,026 --> 00:47:17,226 And only once you have these two things to compare, you can actually draw some 703 00:47:17,226 --> 00:47:20,446 reasonable conclusion. Now sometimes you can compare what 704 00:47:20,446 --> 00:47:23,313 happened now to what happened before, that's not as good as comparing two 705 00:47:23,313 --> 00:47:27,300 things side by side. Now the trick is that if you have to do 706 00:47:27,300 --> 00:47:31,530 two things side by side you're wasting some effort. 707 00:47:31,530 --> 00:47:35,477 So again just take the cooking example. It's not a great example but I'll stay 708 00:47:35,477 --> 00:47:38,300 with this. I guess the son coughs. 709 00:47:38,300 --> 00:47:40,418 I started with it. I'll keep on doing that. 710 00:47:40,418 --> 00:47:46,070 [COUGH] And, and the ideal solution would be to cook both things for a few nights. 711 00:47:46,070 --> 00:47:48,240 And then taste a little bit of one. A little bit on the other. 712 00:47:48,240 --> 00:47:50,970 And maybe in a blind way so you don't know which one it is. 713 00:47:50,970 --> 00:47:52,970 Offering other people taste one fork from this. 714 00:47:52,970 --> 00:47:55,750 One fork from that. And look at the direct comparison. 715 00:47:55,750 --> 00:47:57,800 Now this is going to take some time and effort. 716 00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,968 You'll have to cook things both ways, you'll have to compare them, maybe you'll 717 00:48:00,968 --> 00:48:04,040 have some extra food, and if one of them is not as good, you're stuck with that, 718 00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:07,930 and so on until you've finished the left overs. 719 00:48:07,930 --> 00:48:12,017 But nevertheless, having the experiment and a control group, at the same time is 720 00:48:12,017 --> 00:48:17,442 crucial because if you're going through the trouble of changing something. 721 00:48:17,442 --> 00:48:21,163 It could be good to know the changes you're doing are actually for, for the 722 00:48:21,163 --> 00:48:24,814 better and to be sure that this is the case. 723 00:48:24,814 --> 00:48:29,368 Now, control conditions are not always easy and they're always time consuming 724 00:48:29,368 --> 00:48:34,394 but, without them there's really no way for experimentation. 725 00:48:34,394 --> 00:48:38,090 So, whatever you do, you do something in your personal life, you do something at 726 00:48:38,090 --> 00:48:41,674 work, you do something for your business, you do something as a government, I 727 00:48:41,674 --> 00:48:45,202 think, thinking about what's the control condition and how do we spend some 728 00:48:45,202 --> 00:48:50,588 resources on having that as well is, is crucial. 729 00:48:50,588 --> 00:48:52,188 >> Sounds great. >> Sounds good. 730 00:48:52,188 --> 00:48:55,233 any experiments you want to do in your personal life? 731 00:48:55,233 --> 00:48:59,604 >> In my personal lift[LAUGH]. I'm doing experiments everyday. 732 00:48:59,604 --> 00:49:01,554 >> With a control group. >> Yes. 733 00:49:01,554 --> 00:49:05,994 >> so the other thing about, experiments is that you have to run them 734 00:49:05,994 --> 00:49:10,952 for awhile, especially if you're thinking about something in your own personal 735 00:49:10,952 --> 00:49:15,997 life. So, imagine that you wanted to compare 736 00:49:15,997 --> 00:49:22,092 how your health would look like if you did yoga versus you start running. 737 00:49:22,092 --> 00:49:23,700 Alright. I mean, these are two very different 738 00:49:23,700 --> 00:49:25,836 approaches. And the problem is it's very hard to 739 00:49:25,836 --> 00:49:28,608 imagine you could do one for three weeks and the other one for three weeks and 740 00:49:28,608 --> 00:49:33,192 actually have a good insight into which one of them is better for your behavior. 741 00:49:33,192 --> 00:49:35,964 So you know If you think about it, life goes through up and down, and all kinds 742 00:49:35,964 --> 00:49:40,460 of things happening, and so on. You actually need a substantial amount of 743 00:49:40,460 --> 00:49:45,210 data to, reassure yourself that this actually, better. 744 00:49:45,210 --> 00:49:48,516 So in, in social science, we have a particular, what we call a p value,a 745 00:49:48,516 --> 00:49:52,020 particular level of statistical signifigance. 746 00:49:52,020 --> 00:49:54,944 That we say, okay. If the data is sufficiently different 747 00:49:54,944 --> 00:49:58,168 we're going to trust it but in real life once you start an experiment and the 748 00:49:58,168 --> 00:50:01,652 experiment doesn't seem like its going, the wrong way like, okay here two things 749 00:50:01,652 --> 00:50:04,980 I think this will be better but you know I'm running it for four days and this is 750 00:50:04,980 --> 00:50:11,010 neither seem to be have an effect. So I'll give you an example. 751 00:50:11,010 --> 00:50:15,900 Somebody from England wrote me. Instead with the eight salad for the, for 752 00:50:15,900 --> 00:50:19,150 whole week and they measure themselves at the end of the week and they actually 753 00:50:19,150 --> 00:50:22,300 gained a little bit of weight and they said forget salad I'm going back to the 754 00:50:22,300 --> 00:50:25,350 British diet which allow as you know but is not the most healthy diet in the 755 00:50:25,350 --> 00:50:30,092 world. Now what these person was doing, he was 756 00:50:30,092 --> 00:50:34,170 running the experiment for way too short, I week is not enough. 757 00:50:34,170 --> 00:50:37,890 He didn't see the effect. Maybe also his body was rebelling against 758 00:50:37,890 --> 00:50:40,810 all the salad. He didn't have the effect. 759 00:50:40,810 --> 00:50:43,770 And because of that he made conclusions about the long term. 760 00:50:43,770 --> 00:50:48,747 So one key element is to say how do we not just run experiments but run them for 761 00:50:48,747 --> 00:50:54,430 long enough that you would actually get useful data. 762 00:50:54,430 --> 00:50:56,835 And that's even more complex. >> Alright. 763 00:50:56,835 --> 00:51:00,430 We'll have to do that. Thank you so much for joining me today 764 00:51:00,430 --> 00:51:04,922 and answering that question and all the questions today, 765 00:51:04,922 --> 00:51:08,132 >> Thank you for doing this. I appreciate this. 766 00:51:08,132 --> 00:51:10,660 >> Yeah of course. >> Very good. 767 00:51:10,660 --> 00:51:11,455 So bye bye. 768 00:51:11,455 --> 00:51:33,487 [NOISE]