1 00:00:00,693 --> 00:00:07,518 Another area where emotions enter the picture in a big way is our assessment of 2 00:00:07,518 --> 00:00:13,609 what's risky and what's not risky. So, think to yourself for example, what 3 00:00:13,609 --> 00:00:17,805 are the odds that you would die from different things? 4 00:00:17,805 --> 00:00:24,020 Say, heart attack shark attacks drowning shooting, car accidents, and so on. 5 00:00:24,020 --> 00:00:29,332 And the question is, what makes you believe that you're likely to die from one 6 00:00:29,332 --> 00:00:33,086 thing versus the other? Many years ago Paul Slovic did a study 7 00:00:33,086 --> 00:00:37,112 exactly like that and what he found was that whatever was mentioned in the 8 00:00:37,112 --> 00:00:41,732 newspaper the month before we asked people this question, those are the things that 9 00:00:41,732 --> 00:00:45,954 make them make them believe that they're going to die from them. 10 00:00:45,955 --> 00:00:49,878 So for example, what do you think you're more likely to die from, a falling 11 00:00:49,878 --> 00:00:53,764 airplane, that some airplane would lose some piece of thing, and it would hit you 12 00:00:53,764 --> 00:00:57,424 over the head, or from shark attacks? Most people think shark attacks, right? 13 00:00:57,425 --> 00:00:59,675 Why? Because it's much more salient in our 14 00:00:59,675 --> 00:01:02,750 mind. There are movies about shark attacks. 15 00:01:02,750 --> 00:01:06,107 Na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na. Nobody has made a movie about falling 16 00:01:06,107 --> 00:01:09,506 airplane parts. And because of that, our beliefs about 17 00:01:09,506 --> 00:01:13,926 what's dangerous and not dangerous is actually not coming from the reality of 18 00:01:13,926 --> 00:01:17,390 what's dangerous or not. It comes from our mindset. 19 00:01:17,390 --> 00:01:21,887 What's easy for us to imagine that is dangerous. 20 00:01:21,888 --> 00:01:24,270 On top of that, there's what comes to mind. 21 00:01:24,270 --> 00:01:28,246 And on top of that, there's the question of salience of the emotion. 22 00:01:28,246 --> 00:01:31,767 Not just the ease of coming to mind but the actual emotion. 23 00:01:31,768 --> 00:01:36,316 I grew up in Israel and I go back to visit quite frequently, and every time I go 24 00:01:36,316 --> 00:01:40,780 people ask me if I'm not afraid to go back, and the reality is I'm afraid from 25 00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:44,830 drivers, not from terrorism. But of course people are afraid from 26 00:01:44,830 --> 00:01:49,199 terrorism, not from driving. If you look at the base rate of what the 27 00:01:49,199 --> 00:01:53,407 people are likely to die of, driving is much more likely than terrorism. 28 00:01:53,408 --> 00:01:57,708 But of course terrorism is very different with driving you have the feeling that 29 00:01:57,708 --> 00:02:01,270 you're in control. You're driving, you're making decisions 30 00:02:01,270 --> 00:02:04,241 and so on. Terrorism, it's out of your control. 31 00:02:04,241 --> 00:02:09,269 Somebody's doing it on purpose for you. It's somebody's doing it randomly. 32 00:02:09,270 --> 00:02:13,293 You have nothing to do about it, and because of that the emotion is much, is 33 00:02:13,293 --> 00:02:18,328 much, much higher. And that emotion causes fear to a much 34 00:02:18,328 --> 00:02:22,405 higher degree. Some time I jokingly tell my students that 35 00:02:22,405 --> 00:02:26,961 if they want to get into a good business, a good business could be to sell insurance 36 00:02:26,961 --> 00:02:32,313 against nuclear disasters. Why? 37 00:02:32,313 --> 00:02:36,012 Because people are really, really afraid of nuclear disasters, and they are willing 38 00:02:36,012 --> 00:02:38,961 to pay a lot from it. And on top of that, if it actually 39 00:02:38,961 --> 00:02:44,899 happens, you might not have to pay out. So, there is a question of what things are 40 00:02:44,899 --> 00:02:50,203 we afraid of and how is what we're afraid of actually connected to the base rates to 41 00:02:50,203 --> 00:02:55,195 whats really happening, to our memory of what we, is salient in our memory and 42 00:02:55,195 --> 00:03:00,421 therefore we think it happens and what we're actually afraid of, and what is more 43 00:03:00,421 --> 00:03:04,037 frightening and because of that create higher fear. 44 00:03:04,038 --> 00:03:08,003 As we talk about emotions, we've talked about all emotions and we just put them in 45 00:03:08,003 --> 00:03:11,160 one kind of big bucket, as if all emotions are actually the same. 46 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:13,520 Now, it's not true that all emotions are the same. 47 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,586 There are many different emotions and different levels of emotions. 48 00:03:16,586 --> 00:03:21,982 There are some emotions that are kind of big emotions, primary emotion arousal, 49 00:03:21,982 --> 00:03:27,141 anger, emotions that come from feeling of hunger and, and things that are kind of 50 00:03:27,141 --> 00:03:30,839 incredibly powerful. And then there are things that are not as 51 00:03:30,839 --> 00:03:33,559 emotional. For example, what happens when you see 52 00:03:33,559 --> 00:03:37,806 somebody else suffering or what happens when you read something, something in a 53 00:03:37,806 --> 00:03:40,052 book. Now, for the, the simplicity of the 54 00:03:40,052 --> 00:03:42,684 discussion, we've bundled them all together. 55 00:03:42,684 --> 00:03:47,234 But, of course, their power, the power of these emotions to work on us depend to 56 00:03:47,234 --> 00:03:50,829 some degree about how primary they are and how basic they are. 57 00:03:50,829 --> 00:03:55,184 And the more primary they are, the more we are going to be able to get our, hijack 58 00:03:55,184 --> 00:03:59,606 our system and get them, get us to do what they, emotions, want in some sense, and 59 00:03:59,606 --> 00:04:03,760 the weaker and most social the emotional are, for example, emotions about 60 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,859 embarrassment and so on, they are going to be less, less powerful. 61 00:04:10,060 --> 00:04:13,109 As a summary, what can we say about emotions? 62 00:04:13,109 --> 00:04:17,723 The first thing we need to recognize is they're inherent part of us. 63 00:04:17,723 --> 00:04:20,210 They're evolutionary, they're the most basic part of us. 64 00:04:20,210 --> 00:04:23,690 Now, in some sense the most true part of ourselves. 65 00:04:23,690 --> 00:04:28,916 We have this cognitive system that we can try to redirect our emotions and behave 66 00:04:28,916 --> 00:04:32,120 differently. But emotions are the basis of human 67 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:34,560 nature. The second thing we need to understand is 68 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,067 that emotion and cognition don't add up to each other. 69 00:04:37,068 --> 00:04:40,710 When emotion starts acting, it can take over. 70 00:04:40,710 --> 00:04:45,540 It can basically create a whole new set of behaviors, a whole new set of preferences, 71 00:04:45,540 --> 00:04:49,780 and we don't necessarily see it coming. And then on the other side, we need to 72 00:04:49,780 --> 00:04:53,544 understand that emotions are sometimes good and sometimes bad. 73 00:04:53,545 --> 00:04:58,079 Ask yourself, would you like to live in an environment where everybody was without 74 00:04:58,079 --> 00:04:59,820 emotions? No, of course not. 75 00:04:59,820 --> 00:05:03,461 Emotions are incredibly useful but also incredibly dangerous. 76 00:05:03,461 --> 00:05:07,914 And we have this duality and we need to recognize where are the cases where 77 00:05:07,914 --> 00:05:11,778 emotions are useful. For example, when giving are giving to 78 00:05:11,778 --> 00:05:16,834 each other, when people care about reciprocity and they care about honesty, 79 00:05:16,834 --> 00:05:21,969 and they care about be good to other people and we get some pleasure from all 80 00:05:21,969 --> 00:05:26,053 of those things. We also need to recognize the places where 81 00:05:26,053 --> 00:05:30,750 emotions don't get us to act in a particularly useful way and this duality 82 00:05:30,750 --> 00:05:35,387 is crucially important if we actually want to get people to behave well. 83 00:05:35,388 --> 00:05:39,116 So, how do we understand emotions? How do we understand where it works for 84 00:05:39,116 --> 00:05:42,728 us, where it works against us? In trying to get more of it when it's 85 00:05:42,728 --> 00:05:45,760 working for us and less of it when it works against us. 86 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:58,366 That I think is the main lesson or recipe from emotions to better decision making.