Crazy Ideas [Editorial]Crazy Ideas [Editorial] Ben Bova ========== During the
height of the American involvement in Vietnam, when President Lyndon Johnson
had sent half a million American troops to South Vietnam and enough bombs
were being dropped to make that whole nation resemble the bottom of a
 shake-and-bake bag, Senator Barry Goldwater reminded an audience of his
 ill-fated 1964 campaign. "Remember me?" he asked his listeners. "I'm the nut
who wanted to send the Army into Southeast Asia and bomb Hanoi." Ideas that
are first considered eccentric, unacceptable, or even crazy have a way of
becoming commonplace, sooner or later. One of the causes of Future Shock is
that nowadays, the crazy ideas become Standard Operating Procedure sooner,
 rather than later. Back when I was a lad (a sure sign of advancing, age, that
phrase) nothing was crazier than wanting to fly to the MOON. Well, maybe
there were a few things crazier than that: atomic power, death rays,
artificial hearts, thinking machines, airplanes that could fly as fast as
four hundred miles per hour. Now they're all as normal and as American as
pizza pie. Science fiction, abounds with crazy ideas. Not too long ago, in
Analog, Wade Curtis suggested that coastal cities could have plenty of fresh
water practically free, if they would just arrange to have an iceberg towed
to their shorelines. The average iceberg represents enough fresh water to
last a fair-sized city for months. Crazy idea. But the US Army's Cold Regions
Research and Engineering Laboratory, in New Hampshire, in harness with the US
Geological Survey's Ic£ Dynamics Project at the University of Puget Sound,
Washington, has produced a report that shows maybe it isn't so crazy after
all. The two authors of the study are Wilford F. Weeks, Army, and William J.
Campbell, USGS. They concluded that a ship with approximately two-thirds the
propulsive power of the carrier Enterprise could tow from Antarctica to
Australia or southern South America an iceberg thai would be big enough to
irrigate six thousand square miles of land. Such an iceberg would be worth
more than one billion dollars. The cost of water from a large, modern
desalination plant is estimated to be about 19 cents per cubic meter (264.2
gallons). The price of fresh water from the melting iceberg would be 0.8
cents, they calculated. Crazy idea. And, of course, it is only in
science-fiction stories that you find spacecraft that go faster than light,
that utilize crazy things like space warps to get around the light-speed
barrier. It's also the science-fiction "nuts" who talk about alternate
universes and other dimensions of space/time as if they really
 existed. ========== Well now... astrophysicists have gone ga-ga over black
holes, the potholes in space left when very massive stars or whole galaxies
collapse. Theorists have speculated that the collapsing star might actually
dig a "wormhole" through space/time and emerge else-where/elsewhen in the
universe as a white hole--and perhaps that's what the quasars are. Sounds
suspiciously like a space warp to me! Those wormhole tunnels might be just
the thing for starships to use as shortcuts from one part of the universe to
another. And, in fact, we've already had science-fiction stories in which
 "collapsar" space warps are purposely made by human scientists and engineers,
 who can't poke around looking for natural wormholes when they're in a hurry
to take a shortcut to Betelgeuse. And the theoretiker physicists are also
muttering to each other, not about the possibility of alternate universes,
but about the absolute necessity of postulating them, in order to save the
foundations of physical theory! Seems that the uncertainty principles of
modern physics lead to an unpleasant paradox. Theoretical considerations tell
us that for any given decision-point in the universe--say, whether or not
you'll blink your eyes before you finish this phrase--there's a fifty-fifty
chance for the decision to go either way. Yet in our real world, you either
go a hundred percent one way or a hundred percent the other. You either blink
your eyes or you don't. There must be, the theoreticians conclude, a universe
in which the other decision holds true. For every decision-point in this
universe, there is an alternate universe in which the decision went the other
way. There must be googols of universes! Some exactly like ours, right up
until a moment ago; others that branched off ages ago, when the dinosaurs
became intelligent (for example). Crazy. The stuff of science fiction. Except
that it's been discussed in the highest circles of theoretical
physics. Science-fiction writers come up with all sorts of weird ideas. Many
of them--such as the negative income tax--they borrow from the "straight"
world. Others, such as an international struggle over the natural resources
of the oceans, they make up out of whole cloth-only to have the "straight"
world borrow it from them. One science-fiction idea that seems definitely on
its way to reality is the universal credit card, and the eventual elimination
of cash money. However, anyone who's tried to argue with a computer-smug
credit card organization can testify that the day of the credit-card-economy
won't dawn until both the machines and the people get a lot smarter. It's
chilling to hear a pleasant-voiced young lady ask, over the phone, for your
card number so that she can check out the discrepancy in your bill that
you're complaining about, and then have her come back saying, "Ah yes, here's
your file, Mr. Pagropoulis..." In fact, one of the more frightening predictions
of science fiction` is that our society is moving toward more centralization,
more bureaucracy, more impersonal machine-dictated handling of my
life. There's no fundamental reason why this should be so, except perhaps some
of the ramifications of Parkinson's Law. ========== Parkinson's Law, simply
put, is: Work expands to fill the time allowed for it. And one of the subtler
results of this universal law is the burgeoning of bureaucracies. If one man
decides he can only get a raise by becoming the boss of two other men, he
will scheme and wheedle and cajole until he gets a couple of men to do the
work he originally did alone. His time will be spent "supervising" his two
assistants. And since they are now sharing the work their boss formerly did,
it stands to reason that neither of them can be as productive as their
boss. This kind of frightening built-in mediocrity can be found in .business
firms, government agencies, universities, even churches: wherever large
numbers of people gather to work together. The fact, that they are frequently
working against each other helps to explain why the output of bureaucracies
is so low. What can be done about this? A science-fictionist's , answer might
be deceptively simple: replace the bureaucrats with computers, and leave only
a few brilliant and dedicated men and women at the top of the organization to
run the computers. After all, the archetypical bureaucrat is simply a person
who "goes by the book" at all times--that is, he follows his original
programming. And he resists, with every ounce of passion he can muster, any
attempt to change the programming. "A computer can follow the program better
than a human, and it can be reprogrammed rather simply. At worst, you'd have
to pull out some circuit boards and interior wiring, which is done much more
easily to a machine than to a human being. But this kind of simplistic cure
is one of those crazy ideas for which the world is not yet ready. For one
thing, the bureaucrats themselves would never allow it. Unless, of course,
things were arranged so that the number of computer routines a bureaucrat had
cognizance over was just as important--or more so--than the number of
assistants he or she could pile up. But bureaucracies are, by virtually every
test, a form of living organism. They eat, grow, breed, resist change. It may
well be that "the first--and only!--immortal creature on this planet is the.
bureaucracy that began in the ancient Roman Republic and survives today
within the Catholic Church. The only way a bureaucracy can continue to exist,
though, is if there is no way to measure its performance. How many souls has
the Catholic Church brought salvation to? There is no way to tell; the Church
may be doing a splendid job. But no one on this side of heaven can
objectively state that this is so. So--perhaps the only way to change a
moribund bureaucracy into a dynamic force for human achievement is to find
some way to measure objectively the bureaucracy's performance. How do you
know if your local school board is doing an effective job? It should be
possible to test the students on their reading skills, and compare the
 results to the national average or some other agreed-upon standard of
 excellence. If the kids don't measure up, then neither do the members of the
 board. Get rid of `em! How can a corporation president tell if his public
relations department is performing adequately? One way would be to give the
whole department a six-month vacation with pay, and see what happens to
profits. In most corporations, profits will rise slightly, because the
day-to-day costs of expense-account lunches and typewriter ribbons will not
be incurred for six months. ========== A modicum of thought will show myriads
of ways in which even the most impenetrable bureaucracy can be thrown into
the cold light of objective, rational examination. Perhaps the biggest and
most dangerous bureaucracies are the political ones--the government agencies
that consume tax money and produce little but aggravation. These are more
firmly entrenched than most bureaucracies, thanks to the Civil Service
regulations that were originally set up to safeguard honest workers against
the rampant politics of the spoils system. "The place to start reforming the
political machinery is at the top-- with the politicians themselves. The basic
problem with most politicians is that they are convinced that the most
 important thing in life is for them to be re-elected. So we must dissuade
them of that belief. We have already dissuaded the occupant of the White
House from believing that he has a chance to be re-elected more than once.
The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution limits the President to no
more than two terms in office. Might it not be a reasonable idea to extend
this concept throughout the root and branch of our political system? Why
should anyone-serve twenty terms in the Congress? Is, this nation so poor in
talent that" certain men must grow into their dotage in political office? Why
not make it mandatory that no officeholder can serve more than two
terms? This is bound to produce a "get up or get out" syndrome among
politicians. Instead of working for re-election to the same office, they'll
be struggling manfully (or womanfully, as the case may be) to get elected to
a higher office. There's more prestige, it pays better, and the opportunities
for graft will be larger--if'that's the kind of politician we're talking
about. But this motivating force might work out to the benefit of the
taxpayer. The politician might actually have to accomplish something that
pleases the voters before he can seriously consider himself a candidate for
higher office. After all, there are four hundred and thirty-five Congressmen
in the US House of Representatives, and only a hundred Senators in the Upper
Chamber. If a Representative were limited to two terms and wanted to move up
to a Senator's seat, he just might be tempted to be an effective
Representative. Crazy idea, of course. It would never work. But if it were
tried, it would have to be installed in parallel with another, even crazier
idea: universal public service. The root problem of American politics is that
most Americans don't work at it. Most of us vote, and we don't even do that
as intelligently as we should--particularly in local elections. But if we are
ever to break up the governmental bureaucracies that surround us at the
local, state, and Federal levels, then we must all of us be willing to put a
few years of our lives into public service. Everyone in the nation could be
drafted at age eighteen, man or woman, no exceptions except physical or
mental incapacity. This would provide an army of workers who would serve in
the governmental agencies for two years each. Everyone in the nation could be
drafted again at age forty, with more lenient exemptions (possibly) to
provide a corps of leaders for the youngsters. Many Americans are finding
that they want to change their life-style at about age forty; a year or so in
public service would be a good chance to review their lives, see where
they've been and where they'd like to go. And it would be good for the
community, the state, the nation. When each of us realizes that he or she is
going to devote a few years of service to the community, then we might begin
to demand higher standards of performance from our governmental agencies and
our elected representatives. It's only when the inner workings of the
organization are laid bare that we can reasonably understand what can and
cannot be accomplished. But that's just one of those crazy science-fictional
ideas. It'll never work. It's just as silly as expecting a President as
"hard" on Communism as Richard Nixon to visit Peking. THE EDITOR
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